July 24, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries are well bid to start the day following the release of abysmal manufacturing data out of Germany (and weak European data in general). S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% ahead of the open. July preliminary (flash) PMI data for the Eurozone was weaker than expected, particularly for the manufacturing sector (46.4 vs. 47.7 expected). A level below 50 indicates contraction in activity, and German manufacturing PMI continues to deteriorate, hitting a new low of 43.1 (45.2 expected). Tomorrow’s ECB meeting has been highly anticipated following Mario Draghi’s overly dovish speech last month. While most are looking for Eurozone policymakers to simply set the table for a September action, a growing number are expecting policy action tomorrow, particularly in light of today’s weak manufacturing data. Regardless, the overall growth and inflation trend in the region isn’t getting any better, which makes the future path of monetary policy more clear.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/22/2019	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.08	-0.02	-0.05	-0.03
7/23/2019	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.40%	0.10%	0.40%	—
7/23/2019	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	5	-12	3	2
7/23/2019	Existing Home Sales	5.32m	5.27m	5.34m	5.36m
7/23/2019	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.40%	-1.70%	2.50%	2.90%
7/24/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.90%	-1.10%	—
7/24/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	51	—	50.6	—
7/24/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51.8	—	51.5	—
7/24/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	51.5	—
7/24/2019	New Home Sales	658k	—	626k	—
7/24/2019	New Home Sales MoM	5.10%	—	-7.80%	—
7/25/2019	Durable Goods Orders	0.80%	—	-1.30%	—
7/25/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
7/25/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	—	0.50%	—
7/25/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-0.20%	—	0.60%	—
7/25/2019	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$72.5b	—	-$74.5b	—
7/25/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.50%	—	0.40%	—
7/25/2019	Retail Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.50%	—
7/25/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	218k	—	216k	—
7/25/2019	Continuing Claims	1688k	—	1686k	—
7/25/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	64.7	—
7/25/2019	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	3	—	0	—
7/26/2019	Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019	GDP Annualized QoQ	1.80%	—	3.10%	—
7/26/2019	Personal Consumption	4.00%	—	0.90%	—
7/26/2019	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	0.90%	—
7/26/2019	Core PCE QoQ	2.00%	—	1.20%	—

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