Treasuries are well bid to start the day following the release of abysmal manufacturing data out of Germany (and weak European data in general). S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% ahead of the open. July preliminary (flash) PMI data for the Eurozone was weaker than expected, particularly for the manufacturing sector (46.4 vs. 47.7 expected). A level below 50 indicates contraction in activity, and German manufacturing PMI continues to deteriorate, hitting a new low of 43.1 (45.2 expected). Tomorrow’s ECB meeting has been highly anticipated following Mario Draghi’s overly dovish speech last month. While most are looking for Eurozone policymakers to simply set the table for a September action, a growing number are expecting policy action tomorrow, particularly in light of today’s weak manufacturing data. Regardless, the overall growth and inflation trend in the region isn’t getting any better, which makes the future path of monetary policy more clear.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/22/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.08 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
7/23/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
7/23/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 5 | -12 | 3 | 2 |
7/23/2019 | Existing Home Sales | 5.32m | 5.27m | 5.34m | 5.36m |
7/23/2019 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.40% | -1.70% | 2.50% | 2.90% |
7/24/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.90% | -1.10% | — |
7/24/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 51 | — | 50.6 | — |
7/24/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 51.8 | — | 51.5 | — |
7/24/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.5 | — |
7/24/2019 | New Home Sales | 658k | — | 626k | — |
7/24/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | 5.10% | — | -7.80% | — |
7/25/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | — | -1.30% | — |
7/25/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
7/25/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
7/25/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
7/25/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.5b | — | -$74.5b | — |
7/25/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
7/25/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
7/25/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 218k | — | 216k | — |
7/25/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1688k | — | 1686k | — |
7/25/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 64.7 | — |
7/25/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 3 | — | 0 | — |
7/26/2019 | Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP) | ||||
7/26/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.80% | — | 3.10% | — |
7/26/2019 | Personal Consumption | 4.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
7/26/2019 | GDP Price Index | 2.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
7/26/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.00% | — | 1.20% | — |
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