July 24, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries are well bid to start the day following the release of abysmal manufacturing data out of Germany (and weak European data in general). S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% ahead of the open. July preliminary (flash) PMI data for the Eurozone was weaker than expected, particularly for the manufacturing sector (46.4 vs. 47.7 expected). A level below 50 indicates contraction in activity, and German manufacturing PMI continues to deteriorate, hitting a new low of 43.1 (45.2 expected). Tomorrow’s ECB meeting has been highly anticipated following Mario Draghi’s overly dovish speech last month. While most are looking for Eurozone policymakers to simply set the table for a September action, a growing number are expecting policy action tomorrow, particularly in light of today’s weak manufacturing data. Regardless, the overall growth and inflation trend in the region isn’t getting any better, which makes the future path of monetary policy more clear.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

7/22/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.08-0.02-0.05-0.03
7/23/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.10%0.40%
7/23/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index5-1232
7/23/2019Existing Home Sales5.32m5.27m5.34m5.36m
7/23/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.40%-1.70%2.50%2.90%
7/24/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%-1.10%
7/24/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI5150.6
7/24/2019Markit US Services PMI51.851.5
7/24/2019Markit US Composite PMI51.5
7/24/2019New Home Sales658k626k
7/24/2019New Home Sales MoM5.10%-7.80%
7/25/2019Durable Goods Orders0.80%-1.30%
7/25/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.40%
7/25/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.50%
7/25/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%0.60%
7/25/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.5b-$74.5b
7/25/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.40%
7/25/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.50%
7/25/2019Initial Jobless Claims218k216k
7/25/2019Continuing Claims1688k1686k
7/25/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort64.7
7/25/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity30
7/26/2019Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019GDP Annualized QoQ1.80%3.10%
7/26/2019Personal Consumption4.00%0.90%
7/26/2019GDP Price Index2.00%0.90%
7/26/2019Core PCE QoQ2.00%1.20%















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