Long-end Treasury prices continue to drift lower this morning, pushing the 10-year yield to the highest level since early June (2.97%), and the 2-year/10-year spread has steepened 9 bps in the previous two trading sessions. There isn’t really a single factor driving the recent bear steepening. Some suggest that the recent flattening was overdone (likely), and investors are preparing for a very strong Q2 GDP print (4%+) on Friday, which makes reasonable sense. Additionally, expectations for higher Japanese yields could shift demand from Japanese demand away from U.S. and European debt to domestic securities, and there is also some speculation that the Chinese central bank may intervene to support the yuan (currently at 1-year low versus the dollar) by selling Treasuries. All these factors are likely contributing to a more bearish tone for long-end rates. The tone in risk markets is improved today as well, with all major global equity indices higher today (S&P 500 futures +12 points). Improved economic data in Europe, solid Q2 earnings reports, and rumors of potential fiscal and monetary stimulus from China are all bolstering sentiment in equities today.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/23/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.250.43-0.15-0.45
07/23/2018Existing Home Sales5.44m5.38m5.43m5.41m
07/23/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%-0.60%-0.40%-0.70%
07/24/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%0.20%
07/24/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.155.4
07/24/2018Markit US Services PMI56.356.5
07/24/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.2
07/24/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1820
07/25/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
07/25/2018New Home Sales668k689k
07/25/2018New Home Sales MoM-3.10%6.70%
07/26/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$66.9b-$64.8b-$64.8b
07/26/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.60%
07/26/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k207k
07/26/2018Continuing Claims1733k1751k
07/26/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
07/26/2018Durable Goods Orders3.00%-0.40%
07/26/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.00%
07/26/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%
07/26/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.20%
07/26/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.8
07/26/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2528
07/27/2018Revisions: GDP
07/27/2018GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%2.00%
07/27/2018Personal Consumption3.00%0.90%
07/27/2018GDP Price Index2.30%2.20%
07/27/2018Core PCE QoQ2.20%2.30%
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment97.197.1
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.9
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.4
07/27/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
07/27/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%-0.50%
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.80%
07/30/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3136.5
07/31/2018Employment Cost Index0.70%0.80%
07/31/2018PCE Core YoY2.00%
07/31/2018Personal Income0.40%0.40%
07/31/2018Personal Spending0.50%0.20%
07/31/2018Real Personal Spending0.00%
07/31/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.20%
07/31/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.30%
07/31/2018PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.56%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index210.17
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index200.86
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.41%
07/31/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager61.964.1
07/31/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126126.4
07/31/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.1
07/31/2018Conf. Board Expectations103.2