Long-end Treasury prices continue to drift lower this morning, pushing the 10-year yield to the highest level since early June (2.97%), and the 2-year/10-year spread has steepened 9 bps in the previous two trading sessions. There isn’t really a single factor driving the recent bear steepening. Some suggest that the recent flattening was overdone (likely), and investors are preparing for a very strong Q2 GDP print (4%+) on Friday, which makes reasonable sense. Additionally, expectations for higher Japanese yields could shift demand from Japanese demand away from U.S. and European debt to domestic securities, and there is also some speculation that the Chinese central bank may intervene to support the yuan (currently at 1-year low versus the dollar) by selling Treasuries. All these factors are likely contributing to a more bearish tone for long-end rates. The tone in risk markets is improved today as well, with all major global equity indices higher today (S&P 500 futures +12 points). Improved economic data in Europe, solid Q2 earnings reports, and rumors of potential fiscal and monetary stimulus from China are all bolstering sentiment in equities today.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/23/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.25 | 0.43 | -0.15 | -0.45 |
| 07/23/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.44m | 5.38m | 5.43m | 5.41m |
| 07/23/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | -0.60% | -0.40% | -0.70% |
| 07/24/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 07/24/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.1 | — | 55.4 | — |
| 07/24/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 56.3 | — | 56.5 | — |
| 07/24/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 56.2 | — |
| 07/24/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 18 | — | 20 | — |
| 07/25/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
| 07/25/2018 | New Home Sales | 668k | — | 689k | — |
| 07/25/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | -3.10% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$66.9b | — | -$64.8b | -$64.8b |
| 07/26/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 207k | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | — | 1751k | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 07/26/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.00% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58.8 | — |
| 07/26/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 25 | — | 28 | — |
| 07/27/2018 | Revisions: GDP | ||||
| 07/27/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 07/27/2018 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 07/27/2018 | GDP Price Index | 2.30% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 07/27/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 07/27/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 97.1 | — | 97.1 | — |
| 07/27/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 113.9 | — |
| 07/27/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.4 | — |
| 07/27/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 07/27/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 07/30/2018 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 07/30/2018 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -2.80% | — |
| 07/30/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 31 | — | 36.5 | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Employment Cost Index | 0.70% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | PCE Core YoY | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | PCE Deflator MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | PCE Deflator YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 6.56% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | — | 210.17 | — |
| 07/31/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 200.86 | — |
| 07/31/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.41% | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 61.9 | — | 64.1 | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126 | — | 126.4 | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 161.1 | — |
| 07/31/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 103.2 | — |