July 25, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries bull flattened in the overnight session on low volume as the markets awaited the European Central Bank’s decision. While Mario Draghi’s overly dovish speech set the stage for Eurozone policymakers to begin easing future monetary policy, the ECB elected to keep key interest rates unchanged. However, the message continued as the central bank expects interest rates to remain “at their present or lower levels” through at least the first half of 2020. All ECB members agreed that further stimulus was needed but differences remain on key elements. A reintroduction of Quantitative Easing remains on the table in addition to lowering the charge that banks need to pay in order to park excess cash at the ECB.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/22/2019 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.08 -0.02 -0.05 -0.03
7/23/2019 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.10% 0.40%
7/23/2019 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 5 -12 3 2
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.32m 5.27m 5.34m 5.36m
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.40% -1.70% 2.50% 2.90%
7/24/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.90% -1.10%
7/24/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51 50 50.6
7/24/2019 Markit US Services PMI 51.8 52.2 51.5
7/24/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 51.6 51.5
7/24/2019 New Home Sales 658k 646k 626k 604k
7/24/2019 New Home Sales MoM 5.10% 7.00% -7.80% -8.20%
7/25/2019 Durable Goods Orders 0.70% 2.00% -1.30% -2.30%
7/25/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 1.20% 0.40% 0.50%
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% 1.90% 0.50% 0.30%
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.20% 0.60% 0.60% 0.50%
7/25/2019 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$72.5b -$74.2b -$74.5b -$75.0b
7/25/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.20% 0.40%
7/25/2019 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% -0.10% 0.50% 0.30%
7/25/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 218k 206k 216k
7/25/2019 Continuing Claims 1688k 1676k 1686k 1689k
7/25/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.7 64.7
7/25/2019 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 3 0
7/26/2019 Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.80% 3.10%
7/26/2019 Personal Consumption 4.00% 0.90%
7/26/2019 GDP Price Index 2.00% 0.90%
7/26/2019 Core PCE QoQ 2.00% 1.20%
















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