July 25, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries bull flattened in the overnight session on low volume as the markets awaited the European Central Bank’s decision. While Mario Draghi’s overly dovish speech set the stage for Eurozone policymakers to begin easing future monetary policy, the ECB elected to keep key interest rates unchanged. However, the message continued as the central bank expects interest rates to remain “at their present or lower levels” through at least the first half of 2020. All ECB members agreed that further stimulus was needed but differences remain on key elements. A reintroduction of Quantitative Easing remains on the table in addition to lowering the charge that banks need to pay in order to park excess cash at the ECB.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/22/2019 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.08 -0.02 -0.05 -0.03
7/23/2019 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.10% 0.40%
7/23/2019 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 5 -12 3 2
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.32m 5.27m 5.34m 5.36m
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.40% -1.70% 2.50% 2.90%
7/24/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.90% -1.10%
7/24/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51 50 50.6
7/24/2019 Markit US Services PMI 51.8 52.2 51.5
7/24/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 51.6 51.5
7/24/2019 New Home Sales 658k 646k 626k 604k
7/24/2019 New Home Sales MoM 5.10% 7.00% -7.80% -8.20%
7/25/2019 Durable Goods Orders 0.70% 2.00% -1.30% -2.30%
7/25/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 1.20% 0.40% 0.50%
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% 1.90% 0.50% 0.30%
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.20% 0.60% 0.60% 0.50%
7/25/2019 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$72.5b -$74.2b -$74.5b -$75.0b
7/25/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.20% 0.40%
7/25/2019 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% -0.10% 0.50% 0.30%
7/25/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 218k 206k 216k
7/25/2019 Continuing Claims 1688k 1676k 1686k 1689k
7/25/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.7 64.7
7/25/2019 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 3 0
7/26/2019 Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.80% 3.10%
7/26/2019 Personal Consumption 4.00% 0.90%
7/26/2019 GDP Price Index 2.00% 0.90%
7/26/2019 Core PCE QoQ 2.00% 1.20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.