July 25, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper to start the week, giving back some of the late-week rally that sent the 5-year yield 32 basis points lower in just two days. This week’s calendar will be busy, including a FOMC announcement on Wednesday and important economic data later in the week. The bond market is fully priced for a 75 bps rate hike from the Fed this week and will be more focused on guidance provided by the official statement and press conference. On Friday, the Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) reading will be released, as will the June PCE inflation report. ECI is a preferred wage inflation gauge for Fed leaders, and it reached an all-time high of 1.4% q/q growth in Q1.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
07/25/22	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0	-0.19	0.01	-0.19
07/25/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-18.5	—	-17.7	—
07/26/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.50%	—	1.60%	—
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.45%	—	1.77%	—
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.60%	—	21.23%	—
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	20.39%	—
07/26/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-13	—	-11	—
07/26/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	97	—	98.7	—
07/26/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	147.1	—
07/26/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	66.4	—
07/26/22	New Home Sales	660k	—	696k	—
07/26/22	New Home Sales MoM	-5.20%	—	10.70%	—
07/27/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.30%	—
07/27/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$103.0b	—	-$104.3b	—
07/27/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.50%	—	1.80%	—
07/27/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.00%	—	1.10%	—
07/27/22	Durable Goods Orders	-0.30%	—	0.80%	—
07/27/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	0.70%	—
07/27/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	—	0.60%	—
07/27/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	—	0.80%	—
07/27/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	—	0.70%	—
07/27/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	-12.00%	—
07/27/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	2.25%	—	1.50%	—
07/27/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	2.50%	—	1.75%	—
07/27/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	2.40%	—	1.65%	—
07/28/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	0.40%	—	-1.60%	—
07/28/22	Personal Consumption	1.20%	—	1.80%	—
07/28/22	GDP Price Index	7.90%	—	8.20%	—
07/28/22	Core PCE QoQ	4.30%	—	5.20%	—
07/28/22	Initial Jobless Claims	250k	—	251k	—
07/28/22	Continuing Claims	1380k	—	1384k	—
07/28/22	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	3	—	12	—
07/29/22	Employment Cost Index	1.20%	—	1.40%	—
07/29/22	Personal Income	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
07/29/22	Personal Spending	0.90%	—	0.20%	—
07/29/22	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	-0.40%	—
07/29/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.90%	—	0.60%	—
07/29/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.70%	—	6.30%	—
07/29/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
07/29/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.70%	—	4.70%	—
07/29/22	MNI Chicago PMI	55	—	56	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	51.1	—	51.1	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	57.1	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	47.3	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.20%	—	5.20%	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.80%	—

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