July 26, 2021 Headlines

A modest risk-off tone developed overnight on reports of fresh crackdowns on private industry by the Chinese government, this time focused on private education. Treasury yields are slightly lower and flatter, and equity futures are pointing to a lower open for U.S. stocks. This week’s economic calendar is relatively busy, headlined by Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and the first estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday. Regarding the former, the primary focus for fixed income markets will be any discussion of asset purchases and future adjustments to the monthly pace of those purchases. June new home sales data will be released later this morning, and Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) reading will be announced on Friday. ECI is a preferred measure of wage inflation by the Fed, and for more permanent inflation pressures to surface, many economists consider wage inflation to be a/the prerequisite.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

07/26/21New Home Sales796k769k
07/26/21New Home Sales MoM3.50%-5.90%
07/26/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity31.631.1
07/27/21Durable Goods Orders2.10%2.30%
07/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.80%0.30%
07/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.10%
07/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%1.10%
07/27/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.60%1.80%
07/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.62%
07/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA16.30%14.88%
07/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA14.59%
07/27/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence123.8127.3
07/27/21Conf. Board Present Situation157.7
07/27/21Conf. Board Expectations107
07/27/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2022
07/28/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.00%
07/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-0.30%-0.80%
07/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.0b-$88.1b
07/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.10%1.30%
07/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
07/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
07/28/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
07/29/21Core PCE QoQ6.10%2.50%
07/29/21Revisions: GDP
07/29/21Initial Jobless Claims380k419k
07/29/21Continuing Claims3186k3236k
07/29/21GDP Annualized QoQ8.50%6.40%
07/29/21Personal Consumption10.50%11.40%
07/29/21GDP Price Index5.40%4.30%
07/29/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.5
07/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.30%8.00%
07/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY13.90%
07/30/21Revisions: Personal Income and Outlays
07/30/21Employment Cost Index0.90%0.90%
07/30/21Personal Income-0.40%-2.00%
07/30/21Personal Spending0.70%0.00%
07/30/21Real Personal Spending0.30%-0.40%
07/30/21PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.40%
07/30/21PCE Deflator YoY4.00%3.90%
07/30/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.50%
07/30/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.40%
07/30/21MNI Chicago PMI63.866.1
07/30/21U. of Mich. Sentiment80.880.8
07/30/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions84.5
07/30/21U. of Mich. Expectations78.4
07/30/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%
07/30/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%


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