The Treasury curve is lower and flatter this morning due to weak European data combined with disappointing earnings releases from the tech sector. In his briefing, ECB President Draghi reiterated that the central bank will continue the pace of asset purchases that it had previously outlined and the ECB plans to keep interest rates unchanged through the summer of 2019. Draghi also noted that the Governing Council did not discus the reinvestment strategy for maturing debt.

Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 from the prior week with 217,000 Americans filing for unemployment benefits; this number was 2,000 higher than expected. All in all, the jobs market appears to still be on solid footing as the claims number continues to come in under 300,000, the level that economists use a threshold for a healthy labor market.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/23/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.250.43-0.15-0.45
07/23/2018Existing Home Sales5.44m5.38m5.43m5.41m
07/23/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%-0.60%-0.40%-0.70%
07/24/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%0.20%
07/24/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.155.555.4
07/24/2018Markit US Services PMI56.356.256.5
07/24/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.956.2
07/24/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index18202021
07/25/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.20%-2.50%
07/25/2018New Home Sales668k631k689k666k
07/25/2018New Home Sales MoM-3.10%-5.30%6.70%3.90%
07/26/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$67.0b-$68.3b-$64.8b
07/26/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.00%0.60%0.40%
07/26/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.00%0.40%
07/26/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k217k207k208k
07/26/2018Continuing Claims1733k1745k1751k1753k
07/26/2018Durable Goods Orders3.00%1.00%-0.40%-0.30%
07/26/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.40%0.00%0.30%
07/26/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.30%0.70%
07/26/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%1.00%0.20%
07/26/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.8
07/26/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2528
07/27/2018Revisions: GDP
07/27/2018GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%2.00%
07/27/2018Personal Consumption3.00%0.90%
07/27/2018GDP Price Index2.30%2.20%
07/27/2018Core PCE QoQ2.20%2.30%
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment97.197.1
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.9
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.4
07/27/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
07/27/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%