The Treasury curve continued the recent trend of lower and flatter overnight after reports of rising COVID cases in Europe over the weekend. Equity markets are shaking off the negative virus news, with S&P 500 futures in the green this morning on earnings optimism. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today, and consequently, gold has reached a new record high of $1,933 per ounce this morning. Looking ahead to this week’s events, the initial look at Q2 GDP will receive heavy focus on Thursday, even if it is backwards looking, and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should be more uneventful. The other big area of focus this week will be Congress and the ongoing debate over another round of fiscal aid.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/27/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 6.90% | 7.30% | 15.70% | 15.10% |
| 7/27/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 3.60% | 3.30% | 3.70% | 3.60% |
| 7/27/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 2.20% | 3.30% | 1.60% | — |
| 7/27/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 2.40% | 3.40% | 1.50% | 1.60% |
| 7/27/20 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -4.9 | — | -6.1 | — |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.33% | — |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.10% | — | 3.98% | — |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | — | 224.08 | — |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.73% | — |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 217.72 | — |
| 7/28/20 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | — | 98.1 | — |
| 7/28/20 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 86.2 | — |
| 7/28/20 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 106 | — |
| 7/28/20 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 5 | — | 0 | — |
| 7/29/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.10% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$75.4b | — | -$74.3b | — |
| 7/29/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.90% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Retail Inventories MoM | -1.50% | — | -6.10% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 15.00% | — | 44.30% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -10.40% | — |
| 7/29/20 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | — | 0.25% | — |
| 7/29/20 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Revisions: GDP | ||||
| 7/30/20 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -35.00% | — | -5.00% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Personal Consumption | -34.50% | — | -6.80% | — |
| 7/30/20 | GDP Price Index | -0.10% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Core PCE QoQ | -0.90% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1450k | — | 1416k | — |
| 7/30/20 | Continuing Claims | 16300k | — | 16197k | — |
| 7/30/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.7 | — |
| 7/31/20 | Personal Income | -0.60% | — | -4.20% | — |
| 7/31/20 | Personal Spending | 5.40% | — | 8.20% | — |
| 7/31/20 | Real Personal Spending | 5.10% | — | 8.10% | — |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Deflator YoY | 0.90% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 7/31/20 | Employment Cost Index | 0.60% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 7/31/20 | MNI Chicago PMI | 43.9 | — | 36.6 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72.8 | — | 73.2 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 84.2 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 66.2 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.