July 27, 2020 Headlines

The Treasury curve continued the recent trend of lower and flatter overnight after reports of rising COVID cases in Europe over the weekend. Equity markets are shaking off the negative virus news, with S&P 500 futures in the green this morning on earnings optimism. The U.S. dollar index is lower again today, and consequently, gold has reached a new record high of $1,933 per ounce this morning. Looking ahead to this week’s events, the initial look at Q2 GDP will receive heavy focus on Thursday, even if it is backwards looking, and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should be more uneventful. The other big area of focus this week will be Congress and the ongoing debate over another round of fiscal aid.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

7/27/20Durable Goods Orders6.90%7.30%15.70%15.10%
7/27/20Durables Ex Transportation3.60%3.30%3.70%3.60%
7/27/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air2.20%3.30%1.60%
7/27/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.40%3.40%1.50%1.60%
7/27/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-4.9-6.1
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.33%
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.10%3.98%
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index224.08
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.73%
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index217.72
7/28/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence94.298.1
7/28/20Conf. Board Present Situation86.2
7/28/20Conf. Board Expectations106
7/28/20Richmond Fed Manufact. Index50
7/29/20MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%
7/29/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$75.4b-$74.3b
7/29/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.90%-1.20%
7/29/20Retail Inventories MoM-1.50%-6.10%
7/29/20Pending Home Sales MoM15.00%44.30%
7/29/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-10.40%
7/29/20FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
7/29/20FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
7/29/20Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
7/30/20Revisions: GDP
7/30/20GDP Annualized QoQ-35.00%-5.00%
7/30/20Personal Consumption-34.50%-6.80%
7/30/20GDP Price Index-0.10%1.40%
7/30/20Core PCE QoQ-0.90%1.70%
7/30/20Initial Jobless Claims1450k1416k
7/30/20Continuing Claims16300k16197k
7/30/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.7
7/31/20Personal Income-0.60%-4.20%
7/31/20Personal Spending5.40%8.20%
7/31/20Real Personal Spending5.10%8.10%
7/31/20PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.10%
7/31/20PCE Deflator YoY0.90%0.50%
7/31/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%
7/31/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.00%1.00%
7/31/20Employment Cost Index0.60%0.80%
7/31/20MNI Chicago PMI43.936.6
7/31/20U. of Mich. Sentiment72.873.2
7/31/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions84.2
7/31/20U. of Mich. Expectations66.2
7/31/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%
7/31/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%



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