July 27, 2022 Headlines

The flattening trend in the Treasury market continues this morning ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. Front-end yields are little changed, while long-end yields are down 2-4 basis points. The tech sector is leading a rally in U.S. equity futures ahead of the open following better than expected earnings reports and guidance from tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments. NASDAQ futures are up 1.5% (8:58am ET), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.91%. For today’s FOMC meeting, there isn’t expected to be a surprise regarding the size of the rate hike (75 bps), but any guidance for the rest of the year will be more closely scrutinized. The fed funds futures market is currently priced for close to a 50 bps hike at the September meeting (~3% funds rate).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
07/25/22	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0	-0.19	0.01	-0.19
07/25/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-18.5	-22.6	-17.7	—
07/26/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.50%	1.40%	1.60%	1.50%
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	1.32%	1.77%	1.71%
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.60%	20.50%	21.23%	21.22%
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.75%	20.39%	20.64%
07/26/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-14	0	-11	-9
07/26/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	97	95.7	98.7	98.4
07/26/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	141.3	147.1	147.2
07/26/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	65.3	66.4	65.8
07/26/22	New Home Sales	655k	590k	696k	642k
07/26/22	New Home Sales MoM	-5.90%	-8.10%	10.70%	6.30%
07/27/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.80%	-6.30%	—
07/27/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$103.0b	-$98.2b	-$104.3b	-$104.0b
07/27/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.50%	1.90%	1.80%	1.90%
07/27/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.00%	2.00%	1.10%	1.60%
07/27/22	Durable Goods Orders	-0.40%	1.90%	0.80%	—
07/27/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	0.30%	0.70%	0.50%
07/27/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	0.50%	0.60%	0.50%
07/27/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.30%	0.70%	0.80%	1.00%
07/27/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	—	0.70%	—
07/27/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-13.40%	—	-12.00%	—
07/27/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	2.25%	—	1.50%	—
07/27/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	2.50%	—	1.75%	—
07/27/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	2.40%	—	1.65%	—
07/28/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	0.40%	—	-1.60%	—
07/28/22	Personal Consumption	1.20%	—	1.80%	—
07/28/22	GDP Price Index	8.00%	—	8.20%	—
07/28/22	Core PCE QoQ	4.40%	—	5.20%	—
07/28/22	Initial Jobless Claims	250k	—	251k	—
07/28/22	Continuing Claims	1386k	—	1384k	—
07/28/22	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	4	—	12	—
07/29/22	Employment Cost Index	1.20%	—	1.40%	—
07/29/22	Personal Income	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
07/29/22	Personal Spending	0.90%	—	0.20%	—
07/29/22	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	-0.40%	—
07/29/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.90%	—	0.60%	—
07/29/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.80%	—	6.30%	—
07/29/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
07/29/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.70%	—	4.70%	—
07/29/22	MNI Chicago PMI	55	—	56	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	51.1	—	51.1	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	57.1	—	57.1	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	47.5	—	47.3	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.20%	—	5.20%	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.80%	—

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