July 28, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting higher this morning as gold and silver prices retreat from new record highs overnight. S&P 500 futures are lower ahead of the open on worse-than-expected earnings from McDonalds, 3M, and Harley-Davidson. Senate Republicans have now submitted a $1 trillion proposal for fresh COVID-related fiscal support. The package would reduce the federal unemployment subsidy from $600/week to $200/week, but it does include another $1,200 check to many U.S. households. This sets the stage for an earnest debate with Democrat leaders, who have been looking for something closer to $3 trillion of new aid.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/27/20 Durable Goods Orders 6.90% 7.30% 15.70% 15.10%
7/27/20 Durables Ex Transportation 3.60% 3.30% 3.70% 3.60%
7/27/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 2.20% 3.30% 1.60%
7/27/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 2.40% 3.40% 1.50% 1.60%
7/27/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -4.8 -3 -6.1
7/28/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.30% 0.04% 0.33% 0.24%
7/28/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 4.00% 3.69% 3.98% 3.91%
7/28/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 224.73 224.8 224.08 223.92
7/28/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.46% 4.73% 4.61%
7/28/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 218.9 217.72 217.45
7/28/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 95 98.1
7/28/20 Conf. Board Present Situation 86.2
7/28/20 Conf. Board Expectations 106
7/28/20 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 5 0
7/29/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.10%
7/29/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$75.4b -$74.3b
7/29/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.50% -1.20%
7/29/20 Retail Inventories MoM -2.70% -6.10%
7/29/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 15.00% 44.30%
7/29/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 2.20% -10.40%
7/29/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25%
7/29/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00%
7/29/20 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10%
7/30/20 Revisions: GDP
7/30/20 GDP Annualized QoQ -34.80% -5.00%
7/30/20 Personal Consumption -34.50% -6.80%
7/30/20 GDP Price Index 0.00% 1.40%
7/30/20 Core PCE QoQ -0.90% 1.70%
7/30/20 Initial Jobless Claims 1430k 1416k
7/30/20 Continuing Claims 16250k 16197k
7/30/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.7
7/31/20 Personal Income -0.70% -4.20%
7/31/20 Personal Spending 5.20% 8.20%
7/31/20 Real Personal Spending 5.00% 8.10%
7/31/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.40% 0.10%
7/31/20 PCE Deflator YoY 0.90% 0.50%
7/31/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.10%
7/31/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.00% 1.00%
7/31/20 Employment Cost Index 0.60% 0.80%
7/31/20 MNI Chicago PMI 44 36.6
7/31/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 72.8 73.2
7/31/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 84.2
7/31/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 66.2
7/31/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.10%
7/31/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%


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