July 28, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting higher this morning as gold and silver prices retreat from new record highs overnight. S&P 500 futures are lower ahead of the open on worse-than-expected earnings from McDonalds, 3M, and Harley-Davidson. Senate Republicans have now submitted a $1 trillion proposal for fresh COVID-related fiscal support. The package would reduce the federal unemployment subsidy from $600/week to $200/week, but it does include another $1,200 check to many U.S. households. This sets the stage for an earnest debate with Democrat leaders, who have been looking for something closer to $3 trillion of new aid.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/27/20	Durable Goods Orders	6.90%	7.30%	15.70%	15.10%
7/27/20	Durables Ex Transportation	3.60%	3.30%	3.70%	3.60%
7/27/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	2.20%	3.30%	1.60%	—
7/27/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	2.40%	3.40%	1.50%	1.60%
7/27/20	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-4.8	-3	-6.1	—
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.30%	0.04%	0.33%	0.24%
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	4.00%	3.69%	3.98%	3.91%
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	224.73	224.8	224.08	223.92
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	4.46%	4.73%	4.61%
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	218.9	217.72	217.45
7/28/20	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	95	—	98.1	—
7/28/20	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	86.2	—
7/28/20	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	106	—
7/28/20	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	5	—	0	—
7/29/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	4.10%	—
7/29/20	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$75.4b	—	-$74.3b	—
7/29/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.50%	—	-1.20%	—
7/29/20	Retail Inventories MoM	-2.70%	—	-6.10%	—
7/29/20	Pending Home Sales MoM	15.00%	—	44.30%	—
7/29/20	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	2.20%	—	-10.40%	—
7/29/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	—	0.25%	—
7/29/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
7/29/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
7/30/20	Revisions: GDP
7/30/20	GDP Annualized QoQ	-34.80%	—	-5.00%	—
7/30/20	Personal Consumption	-34.50%	—	-6.80%	—
7/30/20	GDP Price Index	0.00%	—	1.40%	—
7/30/20	Core PCE QoQ	-0.90%	—	1.70%	—
7/30/20	Initial Jobless Claims	1430k	—	1416k	—
7/30/20	Continuing Claims	16250k	—	16197k	—
7/30/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.7	—
7/31/20	Personal Income	-0.70%	—	-4.20%	—
7/31/20	Personal Spending	5.20%	—	8.20%	—
7/31/20	Real Personal Spending	5.00%	—	8.10%	—
7/31/20	PCE Deflator MoM	0.40%	—	0.10%	—
7/31/20	PCE Deflator YoY	0.90%	—	0.50%	—
7/31/20	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	—
7/31/20	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
7/31/20	Employment Cost Index	0.60%	—	0.80%	—
7/31/20	MNI Chicago PMI	44	—	36.6	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	72.8	—	73.2	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	84.2	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	66.2	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.10%	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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