July 28, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets are recovering some of yesterday’s losses in relatively quiet trading ahead of the FOMC later today. Treasury yields are 2-3 bps higher out the curve, and U.S. equity futures are flat to slightly higher following mixed earnings releases yesterday. The focus of today’s FOMC meeting for most market participants will be the discussion of QE tapering, including the when, the what (mix of UST/MBS tapering), and the pace (how much per month?). It’s unlikely that any of those questions will be directly answered today, but market participants, in general, will still attempt to read between the lines. The MBA mortgage applications index rose 5.7% last week, boosted by a 9.3% increase in refinance applications (purchases -1.6%). The increase in refi activity corresponded with a 10 basis point decline in average 30-year and 15-year conventional mortgage rates, according to the MBA survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
07/26/21New Home Sales796k676k769k724k
07/26/21New Home Sales MoM3.50%-6.60%-5.90%-7.80%
07/26/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity31.627.331.1
07/27/21Durable Goods Orders2.20%0.80%2.30%3.20%
07/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.80%0.30%0.30%0.50%
07/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.50%0.10%0.50%
07/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.60%1.10%0.90%
07/27/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.60%1.70%1.80%
07/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.81%1.62%1.66%
07/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA16.33%16.99%14.88%15.01%
07/27/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA16.61%14.59%14.84%
07/27/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence123.9129.1127.3128.9
07/27/21Conf. Board Present Situation160.3157.7159.6
07/27/21Conf. Board Expectations108.4107108.5
07/27/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index20272226
07/28/21MBA Mortgage Applications5.70%-4.00%
07/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.0b-$91.2b-$88.1b-$88.2b
07/28/21Retail Inventories MoM-0.50%0.30%-0.80%
07/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.10%0.80%1.30%
07/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
07/28/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
07/28/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
07/29/21Revisions: GDP
07/29/21GDP Annualized QoQ8.50%6.40%
07/29/21Personal Consumption10.50%11.40%
07/29/21GDP Price Index5.40%4.30%
07/29/21Core PCE QoQ6.10%2.50%
07/29/21Initial Jobless Claims385k419k
07/29/21Continuing Claims3186k3236k
07/29/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.5
07/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.20%8.00%
07/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.30%13.90%
07/30/21Employment Cost Index0.90%0.90%
07/30/21Revisions: Personal Income and Outlays
07/30/21Personal Income-0.40%-2.00%
07/30/21Personal Spending0.70%0.00%
07/30/21Real Personal Spending0.30%-0.40%
07/30/21PCE Deflator MoM0.60%0.40%
07/30/21PCE Deflator YoY4.00%3.90%
07/30/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.50%
07/30/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.40%
07/30/21MNI Chicago PMI64.166.1
07/30/21U. of Mich. Sentiment80.880.8
07/30/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions84.584.5
07/30/21U. of Mich. Expectations78.478.4
07/30/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.80%
07/30/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

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