July 29, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher this morning, led by the front-end which is up 6 bps, while equity futures retraced earlier gains. Inflation data catalyzed the move as the employment cost index rose by 1.3% vs 1.2% expected while PCE rose by 1.0% vs 0.9% expected. Both readings stoked fears that the Fed will take more aggressive action to fight what appears to be stubbornly high inflation.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
07/25/22	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0	-0.19	0.01	-0.19
07/25/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-18.5	-22.6	-17.7	—
07/26/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.50%	1.40%	1.60%	1.50%
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	1.32%	1.77%	1.71%
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.60%	20.50%	21.23%	21.22%
07/26/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.75%	20.39%	20.64%
07/26/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-14	0	-11	-9
07/26/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	97	95.7	98.7	98.4
07/26/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	141.3	147.1	147.2
07/26/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	65.3	66.4	65.8
07/26/22	New Home Sales	655k	590k	696k	642k
07/26/22	New Home Sales MoM	-5.90%	-8.10%	10.70%	6.30%
07/27/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.80%	-6.30%	—
07/27/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$103.0b	-$98.2b	-$104.3b	-$104.0b
07/27/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.50%	1.90%	1.80%	1.90%
07/27/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.00%	2.00%	1.10%	1.60%
07/27/22	Durable Goods Orders	-0.40%	1.90%	0.80%	—
07/27/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	0.30%	0.70%	0.50%
07/27/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	0.50%	0.60%	0.50%
07/27/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.30%	0.70%	0.80%	1.00%
07/27/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	-8.60%	0.70%	0.40%
07/27/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-13.40%	-19.80%	-12.00%	-12.30%
07/27/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	2.50%	2.50%	1.75%	—
07/27/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	2.25%	2.25%	1.50%	—
07/27/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	2.40%	2.40%	1.65%	—
07/28/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	0.40%	-0.90%	-1.60%	—
07/28/22	Personal Consumption	1.20%	1.00%	1.80%	—
07/28/22	GDP Price Index	8.00%	8.70%	8.20%	—
07/28/22	Core PCE QoQ	4.40%	4.40%	5.20%	—
07/28/22	Initial Jobless Claims	250k	256k	251k	261k
07/28/22	Continuing Claims	1386k	1359k	1384k	—
07/28/22	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	4	13	12	—
07/29/22	Employment Cost Index	1.20%	1.30%	1.40%	—
07/29/22	Personal Income	0.50%	0.60%	0.50%	0.60%
07/29/22	Personal Spending	1.00%	1.10%	0.20%	0.30%
07/29/22	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	0.10%	-0.40%	-0.30%
07/29/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.90%	1.00%	0.60%	—
07/29/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.80%	6.80%	6.30%	—
07/29/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.50%	0.60%	0.30%	—
07/29/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.70%	4.80%	4.70%	—
07/29/22	MNI Chicago PMI	55	—	56	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	51.1	—	51.1	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	57.1	—	57.1	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	47.5	—	47.3	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.20%	—	5.20%	—
07/29/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.80%	—

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