July 3, 2019 Headlines

US Treasuries extended gains overnight in reaction to dovish appointees to two of the world’s major central banks. The European Central Bank nominated Christine Lagarde for President and analysts anticipate continued easy money policies if she is approved. Following the nomination, 10-year German Bund yields fell to a record low -.394%. In the United States, President Trump announced Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton as candidates for the two open seats on the Federal Reserve’s Board. Waller currently serves as director of research for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who was the only dissenting vote at the last meeting and Shelton has been an informal adviser to Trump that has publicly said the central bank should lower rates.

Today, the bond market is observing an early close at 2:00pm EST as part of the 4th of July holiday. Trading volumes are expected to be light the remainder of the week.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/1/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	50.1	50.6	50.1	—
7/1/2019	ISM Manufacturing	51	51.7	52.1	—
7/1/2019	ISM Employment	—	54.5	53.7	—
7/1/2019	ISM Prices Paid	53	47.9	53.2	—
7/1/2019	ISM New Orders	52.5	50	52.7	—
7/1/2019	Construction Spending MoM	0.00%	-0.80%	0.00%	0.40%
7/2/2019	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	17.00m	17.30m	17.30m	—
7/3/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.10%	1.30%	—
7/3/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	12.80%	85.90%	—
7/3/2019	ADP Employment Change	140k	102k	27k	41k
7/3/2019	Trade Balance	-$54.0b	-$55.5b	-$50.8b	-$51.2b
7/3/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	223k	221k	227k	229k
7/3/2019	Continuing Claims	1675k	1686k	1688k	1694k
7/3/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	62.6	63.6	—
7/3/2019	Markit US Services PMI	50.7	51.5	50.7	—
7/3/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	51.5	50.6	—
7/3/2019	Factory Orders	-0.60%	—	-0.80%	—
7/3/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.30%	—
7/3/2019	Durable Goods Orders	-1.30%	—	-1.30%	—
7/3/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	0.30%	—
7/3/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.70%	—
7/3/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.40%	—
7/3/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	56	—	56.9	—
7/5/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	162k	—	75k	—
7/5/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
7/5/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	153k	—	90k	—
7/5/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	2k	—	3k	—
7/5/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
7/5/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
7/5/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.20%	—	3.10%	—
7/5/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
7/5/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	—	62.80%	—
7/5/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.10%	—

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