US Treasuries extended gains overnight in reaction to dovish appointees to two of the world’s major central banks. The European Central Bank nominated Christine Lagarde for President and analysts anticipate continued easy money policies if she is approved. Following the nomination, 10-year German Bund yields fell to a record low -.394%. In the United States, President Trump announced Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton as candidates for the two open seats on the Federal Reserve’s Board. Waller currently serves as director of research for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who was the only dissenting vote at the last meeting and Shelton has been an informal adviser to Trump that has publicly said the central bank should lower rates.
Today, the bond market is observing an early close at 2:00pm EST as part of the 4th of July holiday. Trading volumes are expected to be light the remainder of the week.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/1/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.6 | 50.1 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 51 | 51.7 | 52.1 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM Employment | — | 54.5 | 53.7 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 53 | 47.9 | 53.2 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM New Orders | 52.5 | 50 | 52.7 | — |
7/1/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | -0.80% | 0.00% | 0.40% |
7/2/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | 17.30m | 17.30m | — |
7/3/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.10% | 1.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 12.80% | 85.90% | — |
7/3/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | 102k | 27k | 41k |
7/3/2019 | Trade Balance | -$54.0b | -$55.5b | -$50.8b | -$51.2b |
7/3/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 223k | 221k | 227k | 229k |
7/3/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1675k | 1686k | 1688k | 1694k |
7/3/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 62.6 | 63.6 | — |
7/3/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 50.7 | 51.5 | 50.7 | — |
7/3/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 51.5 | 50.6 | — |
7/3/2019 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | — | -0.80% | — |
7/3/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.30% | — | -1.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.70% | — |
7/3/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
7/3/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 56 | — | 56.9 | — |
7/5/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 162k | — | 75k | — |
7/5/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
7/5/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 153k | — | 90k | — |
7/5/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 2k | — | 3k | — |
7/5/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.60% | — |
7/5/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
7/5/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.10% | — |
7/5/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
7/5/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.80% | — | 62.80% | — |
7/5/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.10% | — |
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