July 3, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are little changed to begin what should be a very quiet trading day in the bond market, which will close early at 2pm ET. The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread touched -1.11% overnight, matching March 8 as the most inverted level since the early 1980s. A Wall Street Journal article suggests that recent monthly job reports may be overstating job growth amid a cycle change according to multiple economists. The article specifically highlights the birth-death model, which is used in the establishment survey to estimate the net of jobs created from startups and jobs lost from business closures, which has historically overstated job growth when an economy is entering a recession. The June jobs report will be released on Friday, and the minutes of the June 14 FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday afternoon. We wish everyone a safe and happy 4th of July holiday!

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
07/03/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 46.3 46.3
07/03/23 Construction Spending Revisions
07/03/23 Construction Spending MoM 0.60% 1.20%
07/03/23 ISM Manufacturing 47.1 46.9
07/03/23 ISM Prices Paid 44 44.2
07/03/23 ISM Employment 51.4
07/03/23 ISM New Orders 42.6
07/03/23 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.40m 15.05m
07/05/23 Factory Orders 0.80% 0.40%
07/05/23 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.20%
07/05/23 Durable Goods Orders 1.70% 1.70%
07/05/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.60%
07/05/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70%
07/05/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20%
07/05/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/06/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 3.00%
07/06/23 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 286.70%
07/06/23 ADP Employment Change 240k 278k
07/06/23 Trade Balance -$69.0b -$74.6b
07/06/23 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 239k
07/06/23 Continuing Claims 1740k 1742k
07/06/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 54.1 54.1
07/06/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53
07/06/23 JOLTS Job Openings 9968k 10103k
07/06/23 ISM Services Index 51.3 50.3
07/06/23 ISM Services Prices Paid 56.2
07/06/23 ISM Services Employment 49.2
07/06/23 ISM Services New Orders 52.9
07/07/23 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
07/07/23 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 225k 339k
07/07/23 Change in Private Payrolls 200k 283k
07/07/23 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k -2k
07/07/23 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.70%
07/07/23 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
07/07/23 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.30%
07/07/23 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 34.3
07/07/23 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60%
07/07/23 Underemployment Rate 6.70%

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