July 30, 2019 Headlines

S&P 500 futures are down 14 points ahead of the open in response to a tweet from President Trump criticizing the Chinese government for not following through on promises to buy American agricultural goods. Treasury prices initially surged as well but have since given back most of those gains (only slightly higher on the day). Trump’s comments come just before the resumption of U.S./China negotiations at a dinner in Shanghai tonight.

Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting remains the primary area of focus for the markets (for better or worse). A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, and market participants will be more closely focused on the official statement language and the tone from Fed Chair Powell. There is some chatter in the markets regarding the use of the word “patient” in the official statement. This word was removed from the June statement with regards to future policy decisions. Some are speculating that the Fed could both announce a rate cut and reinsert the word patient to the statement, which would imply that the rate cut is a “one and done” for the immediate future. If this happens (and the word is emphasized in the press conference as well), equity markets would likely react with disappointment on the prospect of a very limited easing cycle. The more likely scenario at this point is a 25 bps cut and a premature end to balance-sheet reduction (scheduled to end in 6 weeks).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/29/2019 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -6 -6.3 -12.1
7/30/2019 Personal Income 0.40% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%
7/30/2019 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
7/30/2019 Real Personal Spending 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
7/30/2019 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
7/30/2019 PCE Deflator YoY 1.50% 1.40% 1.50% 1.40%
7/30/2019 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
7/30/2019 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.70% 1.60% 1.60% 1.50%
7/30/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.20% 0.14% 0.00% 0.03%
7/30/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 2.40% 2.39% 2.54% 2.53%
7/30/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 216.9 216.94 215.68 215.66
7/30/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 3.43% 3.54% 3.52%
7/30/2019 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 209.66 207.97 207.91
7/30/2019 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 2.80% 1.10%
7/30/2019 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 0.70% -0.60% -0.80%
7/30/2019 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 125 135.7 121.5 124.3
7/30/2019 Conf. Board Present Situation 170.9 162.6 164.3
7/30/2019 Conf. Board Expectations 112.2 94.1 97.6
7/31/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.90%
7/31/2019 ADP Employment Change 150k 102k
7/31/2019 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.70%
7/31/2019 MNI Chicago PMI 51 49.7
7/31/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.25% 2.50%
7/31/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 2.00% 2.25%
7/31/2019 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 2.10% 2.35%
8/1/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 12.80%
8/1/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 214k 206k
8/1/2019 Continuing Claims 1678k 1676k
8/1/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.7
8/1/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 50 50
8/1/2019 ISM Manufacturing 52 51.7
8/1/2019 ISM Employment 54.5
8/1/2019 ISM Prices Paid 49 47.9
8/1/2019 ISM New Orders 50
8/1/2019 Construction Spending MoM 0.30% -0.80%
8/1/2019 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.90m 17.30m
8/2/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 165k 224k
8/2/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/2/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 165k 191k
8/2/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k 17k
8/2/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.70% 3.70%
8/2/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.20%
8/2/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.10% 3.10%
8/2/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.4
8/2/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90% 62.90%
8/2/2019 Underemployment Rate 7.20%
8/2/2019 Trade Balance -$54.6b -$55.5b
8/2/2019 Factory Orders 0.70% -0.70%
8/2/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.10%
8/2/2019 Durable Goods Orders 2.00%
8/2/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 1.20%
8/2/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.90%
8/2/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.60%
8/2/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.5 98.4
8/2/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 111.1
8/2/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 90.1
8/2/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.60%
8/2/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%












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