S&P 500 futures are down 14 points ahead of the open in response to a tweet from President Trump criticizing the Chinese government for not following through on promises to buy American agricultural goods. Treasury prices initially surged as well but have since given back most of those gains (only slightly higher on the day). Trump’s comments come just before the resumption of U.S./China negotiations at a dinner in Shanghai tonight.
Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting remains the primary area of focus for the markets (for better or worse). A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, and market participants will be more closely focused on the official statement language and the tone from Fed Chair Powell. There is some chatter in the markets regarding the use of the word “patient” in the official statement. This word was removed from the June statement with regards to future policy decisions. Some are speculating that the Fed could both announce a rate cut and reinsert the word patient to the statement, which would imply that the rate cut is a “one and done” for the immediate future. If this happens (and the word is emphasized in the press conference as well), equity markets would likely react with disappointment on the prospect of a very limited easing cycle. The more likely scenario at this point is a 25 bps cut and a premature end to balance-sheet reduction (scheduled to end in 6 weeks).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/29/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -6 | -6.3 | -12.1 | — |
7/30/2019 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
7/30/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
7/30/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
7/30/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
7/30/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.50% | 1.40% | 1.50% | 1.40% |
7/30/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
7/30/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.70% | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.50% |
7/30/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.03% |
7/30/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.40% | 2.39% | 2.54% | 2.53% |
7/30/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 216.9 | 216.94 | 215.68 | 215.66 |
7/30/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 3.43% | 3.54% | 3.52% |
7/30/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 209.66 | 207.97 | 207.91 |
7/30/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | 2.80% | 1.10% | — |
7/30/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 0.70% | -0.60% | -0.80% | — |
7/30/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 125 | 135.7 | 121.5 | 124.3 |
7/30/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 170.9 | 162.6 | 164.3 |
7/30/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 112.2 | 94.1 | 97.6 |
7/31/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.90% | — |
7/31/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 102k | — |
7/31/2019 | Employment Cost Index | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
7/31/2019 | MNI Chicago PMI | 51 | — | 49.7 | — |
7/31/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.50% | — |
7/31/2019 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.00% | — | 2.25% | — |
7/31/2019 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.10% | — | 2.35% | — |
8/1/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 12.80% | — |
8/1/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | — | 206k | — |
8/1/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | — | 1676k | — |
8/1/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63.7 | — |
8/1/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50 | — | 50 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 52 | — | 51.7 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.5 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 49 | — | 47.9 | — |
8/1/2019 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 50 | — |
8/1/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.80% | — |
8/1/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.90m | — | 17.30m | — |
8/2/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 165k | — | 224k | — |
8/2/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
8/2/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 165k | — | 191k | — |
8/2/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 17k | — |
8/2/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
8/2/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
8/2/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
8/2/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
8/2/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.90% | — | 62.90% | — |
8/2/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.20% | — |
8/2/2019 | Trade Balance | -$54.6b | — | -$55.5b | — |
8/2/2019 | Factory Orders | 0.70% | — | -0.70% | — |
8/2/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
8/2/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.00% | — |
8/2/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 1.20% | — |
8/2/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.90% | — |
8/2/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.60% | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.5 | — | 98.4 | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.1 | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90.1 | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
8/2/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.