July 30, 2019 Headlines

S&P 500 futures are down 14 points ahead of the open in response to a tweet from President Trump criticizing the Chinese government for not following through on promises to buy American agricultural goods. Treasury prices initially surged as well but have since given back most of those gains (only slightly higher on the day). Trump’s comments come just before the resumption of U.S./China negotiations at a dinner in Shanghai tonight.

Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting remains the primary area of focus for the markets (for better or worse). A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, and market participants will be more closely focused on the official statement language and the tone from Fed Chair Powell. There is some chatter in the markets regarding the use of the word “patient” in the official statement. This word was removed from the June statement with regards to future policy decisions. Some are speculating that the Fed could both announce a rate cut and reinsert the word patient to the statement, which would imply that the rate cut is a “one and done” for the immediate future. If this happens (and the word is emphasized in the press conference as well), equity markets would likely react with disappointment on the prospect of a very limited easing cycle. The more likely scenario at this point is a 25 bps cut and a premature end to balance-sheet reduction (scheduled to end in 6 weeks).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

7/29/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-6-6.3-12.1
7/30/2019Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.50%0.40%
7/30/2019Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.40%0.50%
7/30/2019Real Personal Spending0.20%0.20%0.20%0.30%
7/30/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%0.10%
7/30/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.40%1.50%1.40%
7/30/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
7/30/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%1.60%1.50%
7/30/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.14%0.00%0.03%
7/30/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.40%2.39%2.54%2.53%
7/30/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index216.9216.94215.68215.66
7/30/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.43%3.54%3.52%
7/30/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index209.66207.97207.91
7/30/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%2.80%1.10%
7/30/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.70%-0.60%-0.80%
7/30/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence125135.7121.5124.3
7/30/2019Conf. Board Present Situation170.9162.6164.3
7/30/2019Conf. Board Expectations112.294.197.6
7/31/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
7/31/2019ADP Employment Change150k102k
7/31/2019Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
7/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI5149.7
7/31/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.50%
7/31/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%2.25%
7/31/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.10%2.35%
8/1/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY12.80%
8/1/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k206k
8/1/2019Continuing Claims1678k1676k
8/1/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.7
8/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI5050
8/1/2019ISM Manufacturing5251.7
8/1/2019ISM Employment54.5
8/1/2019ISM Prices Paid4947.9
8/1/2019ISM New Orders50
8/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.30%-0.80%
8/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m17.30m
8/2/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls165k224k
8/2/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/2/2019Change in Private Payrolls165k191k
8/2/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k17k
8/2/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
8/2/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.20%
8/2/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%3.10%
8/2/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
8/2/2019Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%62.90%
8/2/2019Underemployment Rate7.20%
8/2/2019Trade Balance-$54.6b-$55.5b
8/2/2019Factory Orders0.70%-0.70%
8/2/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
8/2/2019Durable Goods Orders2.00%
8/2/2019Durables Ex Transportation1.20%
8/2/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.90%
8/2/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98.598.4
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.1
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Expectations90.1
8/2/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
8/2/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%












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