July 30, 2020 Headlines

US Treasury prices are higher this morning as increasing cases in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Europe stoked fears of a second wave of coronavirus cases. The risk-off sentiment continued before the open with S&P 500 futures down 1.1% following the recent economic data. The Commerce Department released the initial estimate of Q2 gross domestic product which showed the US economy shrinking by 9.5%. On an annualized basis, the decline represents a 32.9% contraction and beat median expectations of 34.5%. Even though the initial reading came in above expectations, the drastic decline highlights the economic impact from government ordered shutdowns. The number of jobless claims, or those filing for state unemployment benefits, rose for the second straight week to 1.43mm. Continuing claims increased by 867,000 over the same period to 17mm total Americans filing for ongoing benefits.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/27/20	Durable Goods Orders	6.90%	7.30%	15.70%	15.10%
7/27/20	Durables Ex Transportation	3.60%	3.30%	3.70%	3.60%
7/27/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	2.20%	3.30%	1.60%	—
7/27/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	2.40%	3.40%	1.50%	1.60%
7/27/20	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-4.8	-3	-6.1	—
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.30%	0.04%	0.33%	0.24%
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	4.00%	3.69%	3.98%	3.91%
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	224.73	224.76	224.08	223.92
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	4.46%	4.73%	4.61%
7/28/20	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	218.87	217.72	217.45
7/28/20	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	95	92.6	98.1	98.3
7/28/20	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	94.2	86.2	86.7
7/28/20	Conf. Board Expectations	—	91.5	106	106.1
7/28/20	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	5	10	0	—
7/29/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.80%	4.10%	—
7/29/20	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$75.4b	-$70.6b	-$74.3b	-$75.3b
7/29/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.50%	-2.00%	-1.20%	—
7/29/20	Retail Inventories MoM	-2.70%	-2.60%	-6.10%	-6.20%
7/29/20	Pending Home Sales MoM	15.00%	16.60%	44.30%	—
7/29/20	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	2.20%	12.70%	-10.40%	—
7/29/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
7/29/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
7/29/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
7/30/20	Revisions: GDP
7/30/20	GDP Annualized QoQ	-34.50%	-32.90%	-5.00%	—
7/30/20	Personal Consumption	-34.50%	-34.60%	-6.80%	-6.90%
7/30/20	GDP Price Index	-0.10%	-1.80%	1.40%	—
7/30/20	Core PCE QoQ	-0.90%	-1.10%	1.70%	1.60%
7/30/20	Initial Jobless Claims	1445k	1434k	1416k	1422k
7/30/20	Continuing Claims	16200k	17018k	16197k	16151k
7/30/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	44.7	—
7/31/20	Revisions: Personal Income & Spending
7/31/20	Personal Income	-0.70%	—	-4.20%	—
7/31/20	Personal Spending	5.30%	—	8.20%	—
7/31/20	Real Personal Spending	5.00%	—	8.10%	—
7/31/20	PCE Deflator MoM	0.40%	—	0.10%	—
7/31/20	PCE Deflator YoY	0.90%	—	0.50%	—
7/31/20	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.10%	—
7/31/20	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.00%	—	1.00%	—
7/31/20	Employment Cost Index	0.60%	—	0.80%	—
7/31/20	MNI Chicago PMI	44.5	—	36.6	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	72.9	—	73.2	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	85.5	—	84.2	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	65.5	—	66.2	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.10%	—
7/31/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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