Treasury prices are lower and the curve modestly steeper to start the week. Today’s move is attributable to European supply, as well as expectations for the Bank of Japan to allow long-term yields to move higher when it’s meeting concludes tomorrow. The latter would involve less purchases by the central bank, which should pressure long-end European and U.S. yields higher (all else equal). Global equity markets are mostly lower today, and S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged. Friday’s Q2 GDP report was largely in line with expectations from a top-line growth perspective (4.1%), but the details of the report were constructive for the current quarter as well. Personal consumption and business investment were both robust, and declining business inventories actually shed 1 percentage point from the oval growth figure (positive for future productivity). This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the July jobs report (Friday), July income/spending and PCE (tomorrow), and the August FOMC meeting (Wednesday).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.20%-0.50%
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.80%
07/30/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3036.5
07/31/2018Personal Income0.40%0.40%
07/31/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.20%
07/31/2018Real Personal Spending0.40%0.00%
07/31/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.20%
07/31/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.30%2.30%
07/31/2018PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
07/31/2018PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%
07/31/2018Employment Cost Index0.70%0.80%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.20%0.20%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.30%6.56%
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index210.17
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index200.86
07/31/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.41%
07/31/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager61.864.1
07/31/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence126126.4
07/31/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.1
07/31/2018Conf. Board Expectations103.2
08/01/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.20%
08/01/2018ADP Employment Change183k177k
08/01/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.555.5
08/01/2018Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.40%
08/01/2018ISM Manufacturing59.360.2
08/01/2018ISM Employment56
08/01/2018ISM Prices Paid75.576.8
08/01/2018ISM New Orders63.5
08/01/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%2.00%
08/01/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%1.75%
08/01/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.05m17.38m
08/02/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY19.60%
08/02/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k217k
08/02/2018Continuing Claims1750k1745k
08/02/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59
08/02/2018Factory Orders0.70%0.40%
08/02/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.70%
08/02/2018Durable Goods Orders1.00%
08/02/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.40%
08/02/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
08/02/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%
08/03/2018Trade Balance-$46.4b-$43.1b
08/03/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k213k
08/03/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
08/03/2018Change in Private Payrolls188k202k
08/03/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls23k36k
08/03/2018Unemployment Rate3.90%4.00%
08/03/2018Underemployment Rate7.80%
08/03/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
08/03/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.70%
08/03/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
08/03/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%
08/03/2018Markit US Services PMI56.256.2
08/03/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.9
08/03/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.659.1