July 31, 2019 Headlines

Markets are expectedly quiet ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, with little change in Treasury yields and U.S. equity futures.  US/China negotiations ended in Shanghai last night with no official announcements, and the fact that no negative headlines surfaced is being viewed as a positive at this point.  Additionally, Secretary Wilbur Ross said yesterday that the Commerce Department may provide answers as soon as next week to Huawei waiver requests from American tech companies.

The baseline expectation for today’s Fed meeting is a 25 bps rate cut (small probability of a 50 bps cut priced in), but market participants will be more focused on the forward guidance from the official statement and press conference. As discussed in yesterday’s commentary, there has been some chatter regarding the use of the word “patient” again. If this word is emphasized, it would be perceived as a signal that the Fed is not currently prepared for additional easing in the near term.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

7/31/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-1.40%-1.90%
7/31/2019ADP Employment Change150k156k102k112k
7/31/2019Employment Cost Index0.70%0.60%0.70%
7/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI5149.7
7/31/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.50%
7/31/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%2.25%
7/31/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.10%2.35%
8/1/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY12.80%
8/1/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k206k
8/1/2019Continuing Claims1678k1676k
8/1/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.7
8/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI5050
8/1/2019ISM Manufacturing5251.7
8/1/2019ISM Employment54.5
8/1/2019ISM Prices Paid4947.9
8/1/2019ISM New Orders50
8/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.30%-0.80%
8/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.90m17.30m
8/2/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls165k224k
8/2/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
8/2/2019Change in Private Payrolls165k191k
8/2/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k17k
8/2/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
8/2/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.20%
8/2/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%3.10%
8/2/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
8/2/2019Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%62.90%
8/2/2019Underemployment Rate7.20%
8/2/2019Trade Balance-$54.6b-$55.5b
8/2/2019Factory Orders0.70%-0.70%
8/2/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
8/2/2019Durable Goods Orders2.00%
8/2/2019Durables Ex Transportation1.20%
8/2/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.90%
8/2/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98.598.4
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.1
8/2/2019U. of Mich. Expectations90.1
8/2/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
8/2/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%













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