US equity futures are higher this morning (NASDAQ +1.05%) as quarterly results from the large tech firms Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet exceeded analyst expectations. Despite stronger equities, Treasury yields reached an overnight low of .52% on continued supported from month-end buying and lingering coronavirus fears. Personal income fell 1.1% in the month of June as the effect from the one-time government stimulus payment has started to fade. Unemployment payments surged over the period by $111 billion on an annualized basis due to the federal government’s additional $600 a week in jobless benefits. So far, congress has failed to reach an agreement on additional aid and current benefits will expire at the end of the month.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/27/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 6.90% | 7.30% | 15.70% | 15.10% |
| 7/27/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 3.60% | 3.30% | 3.70% | 3.60% |
| 7/27/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 2.20% | 3.30% | 1.60% | — |
| 7/27/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 2.40% | 3.40% | 1.50% | 1.60% |
| 7/27/20 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -4.8 | -3 | -6.1 | — |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.33% | 0.24% |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.00% | 3.69% | 3.98% | 3.91% |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 224.73 | 224.76 | 224.08 | 223.92 |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.46% | 4.73% | 4.61% |
| 7/28/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 218.87 | 217.72 | 217.45 |
| 7/28/20 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 95 | 92.6 | 98.1 | 98.3 |
| 7/28/20 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 94.2 | 86.2 | 86.7 |
| 7/28/20 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 91.5 | 106 | 106.1 |
| 7/28/20 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 5 | 10 | 0 | — |
| 7/29/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.80% | 4.10% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$75.4b | -$70.6b | -$74.3b | -$75.3b |
| 7/29/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.50% | -2.00% | -1.20% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Retail Inventories MoM | -2.70% | -2.60% | -6.10% | -6.20% |
| 7/29/20 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 15.00% | 16.60% | 44.30% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2.20% | 12.70% | -10.40% | — |
| 7/29/20 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | — |
| 7/29/20 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
| 7/29/20 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Revisions: GDP | ||||
| 7/30/20 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -34.50% | -32.90% | -5.00% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Personal Consumption | -34.50% | -34.60% | -6.80% | -6.90% |
| 7/30/20 | GDP Price Index | -0.10% | -1.80% | 1.40% | — |
| 7/30/20 | Core PCE QoQ | -0.90% | -1.10% | 1.70% | 1.60% |
| 7/30/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1445k | 1434k | 1416k | 1422k |
| 7/30/20 | Continuing Claims | 16200k | 17018k | 16197k | 16151k |
| 7/30/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 44.3 | 44.7 | — |
| 7/31/20 | Revisions: Personal Income & Spending | ||||
| 7/31/20 | Personal Income | -0.60% | -1.10% | -4.20% | -4.40% |
| 7/31/20 | Personal Spending | 5.20% | 5.60% | 8.20% | 8.50% |
| 7/31/20 | Real Personal Spending | 5.00% | 5.20% | 8.10% | 8.40% |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Deflator YoY | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.50% | — |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 7/31/20 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.00% | — |
| 7/31/20 | Employment Cost Index | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.80% | — |
| 7/31/20 | MNI Chicago PMI | 44 | 51.9 | 36.6 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72.9 | 72.5 | 73.2 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 85.5 | 82.8 | 84.2 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 65.5 | 65.9 | 66.2 | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | 3.00% | 3.10% | — |
| 7/31/20 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | 2.60% | 2.70% | — |
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