July 31, 2020 Headlines

US equity futures are higher this morning (NASDAQ +1.05%) as quarterly results from the large tech firms Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet exceeded analyst expectations. Despite stronger equities, Treasury yields reached an overnight low of .52% on continued supported from month-end buying and lingering coronavirus fears. Personal income fell 1.1% in the month of June as the effect from the one-time government stimulus payment has started to fade. Unemployment payments surged over the period by $111 billion on an annualized basis due to the federal government’s additional $600 a week in jobless benefits. So far, congress has failed to reach an agreement on additional aid and current benefits will expire at the end of the month.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

7/27/20Durable Goods Orders6.90%7.30%15.70%15.10%
7/27/20Durables Ex Transportation3.60%3.30%3.70%3.60%
7/27/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air2.20%3.30%1.60%
7/27/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air2.40%3.40%1.50%1.60%
7/27/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-4.8-3-6.1
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%0.04%0.33%0.24%
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.00%3.69%3.98%3.91%
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index224.73224.76224.08223.92
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.46%4.73%4.61%
7/28/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index218.87217.72217.45
7/28/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence9592.698.198.3
7/28/20Conf. Board Present Situation94.286.286.7
7/28/20Conf. Board Expectations91.5106106.1
7/28/20Richmond Fed Manufact. Index5100
7/29/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.80%4.10%
7/29/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$75.4b-$70.6b-$74.3b-$75.3b
7/29/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.50%-2.00%-1.20%
7/29/20Retail Inventories MoM-2.70%-2.60%-6.10%-6.20%
7/29/20Pending Home Sales MoM15.00%16.60%44.30%
7/29/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY2.20%12.70%-10.40%
7/29/20FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
7/29/20FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
7/29/20Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
7/30/20Revisions: GDP
7/30/20GDP Annualized QoQ-34.50%-32.90%-5.00%
7/30/20Personal Consumption-34.50%-34.60%-6.80%-6.90%
7/30/20GDP Price Index-0.10%-1.80%1.40%
7/30/20Core PCE QoQ-0.90%-1.10%1.70%1.60%
7/30/20Initial Jobless Claims1445k1434k1416k1422k
7/30/20Continuing Claims16200k17018k16197k16151k
7/30/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.344.7
7/31/20Revisions: Personal Income & Spending
7/31/20Personal Income-0.60%-1.10%-4.20%-4.40%
7/31/20Personal Spending5.20%5.60%8.20%8.50%
7/31/20Real Personal Spending5.00%5.20%8.10%8.40%
7/31/20PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%0.10%
7/31/20PCE Deflator YoY0.90%0.80%0.50%
7/31/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%0.20%
7/31/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.00%0.90%1.00%
7/31/20Employment Cost Index0.60%0.50%0.80%
7/31/20MNI Chicago PMI4451.936.6
7/31/20U. of Mich. Sentiment72.972.573.2
7/31/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions85.582.884.2
7/31/20U. of Mich. Expectations65.565.966.2
7/31/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%3.10%
7/31/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%2.70%


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