Treasuries are slightly lower on what should be a quiet holiday-shortened trading day. The bond market will officially close at 2pm ET, and trading desks will be lightly staffed today. Trade tensions continue to present the greatest near-term risk for the global economy, but there was one positive headline overnight on that front. Multiple Chinese central bank officials verbally pledged to keep the yuan at a “reasonable and balanced level” versus the dollar and not use it as a tool to combat U.S. tariffs. The yuan had weakened recently, and some had speculated that the central bank was preparing to use currency devaluation to offset the effect of U.S. trade threats. For now, these officials are relying on verbal pledges to reverse the recent weakening, but if the markets ignore them, the central bank could intervene in the currency markets to prop up the yuan. Continuing with trade, the minutes of the June 13 FOMC meeting will be released Thursday, and market participants will be looking to see how trade uncertainty may be affecting the policy outlook of Fed leaders. Have a very happy and safe 4th of July!

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.655.454.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.40%1.80%0.90%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.560.258.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment5656.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid7576.879.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.563.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018Factory Orders0.00%-0.80%
07/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
07/03/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.50%-0.60%
07/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
07/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m16.81m
07/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%
07/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-4.80%
07/05/2018ADP Employment Change190k178k
07/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k227k
07/05/2018Continuing Claims1718k1705k
07/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.3
07/05/2018Markit US Services PMI56.556.5
07/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI56
07/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.358.6
07/05/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/06/2018Trade Balance-$43.7b-$46.2b
07/06/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k223k
07/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision15k
07/06/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k218k
07/06/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k18k
07/06/2018Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
07/06/2018Underemployment Rate7.60%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.70%
07/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
07/06/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
07/09/2018Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.262b
07/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107.8
07/10/2018JOLTS Job Openings6698