July 5, 2019 Headlines
Following the Non-farm Payrolls report, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded back above the 2% level as the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut weakened. The headline employment number rose more than expected at 224k with a mild downward back-month revision of 11k jobs. While the average job growth has slowed the first half of the year, the report delivered signs the economy remains on track and fed fund futures trimmed the amount of easing expected.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/1/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.6 | 50.1 | — |
7/1/19 | ISM Manufacturing | 51 | 51.7 | 52.1 | — |
7/1/19 | ISM Employment | — | 54.5 | 53.7 | — |
7/1/19 | ISM Prices Paid | 53 | 47.9 | 53.2 | — |
7/1/19 | ISM New Orders | 52.5 | 50 | 52.7 | — |
7/1/19 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | -0.80% | 0.00% | 0.40% |
7/2/19 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | 17.30m | 17.30m | — |
7/3/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.10% | 1.30% | — |
7/3/19 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 12.80% | 85.90% | — |
7/3/19 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | 102k | 27k | 41k |
7/3/19 | Trade Balance | -$54.0b | -$55.5b | -$50.8b | -$51.2b |
7/3/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 223k | 221k | 227k | 229k |
7/3/19 | Continuing Claims | 1675k | 1686k | 1688k | 1694k |
7/3/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 62.6 | 63.6 | — |
7/3/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 50.7 | 51.5 | 50.7 | — |
7/3/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 51.5 | 50.6 | — |
7/3/19 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | -0.70% | -0.80% | -1.20% |
7/3/19 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
7/3/19 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.30% | -1.30% | -1.30% | — |
7/3/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
7/3/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.60% | 0.70% | — |
7/3/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.50% | 0.40% | — |
7/3/19 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 56 | 55.1 | 56.9 | — |
7/5/19 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | 224k | 75k | 72k |
7/5/19 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -11k | — | — |
7/5/19 | Change in Private Payrolls | 150k | 191k | 90k | 83k |
7/5/19 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | 17k | 3k | — |
7/5/19 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | 3.70% | 3.60% | — |
7/5/19 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
7/5/19 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.20% | 3.10% | 3.10% | — |
7/5/19 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | — |
7/5/19 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.80% | 62.90% | 62.80% | — |
7/5/19 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.20% | 7.10% | — |
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