July 5, 2019 Headlines

Following the Non-farm Payrolls report, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded back above the 2% level as the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut weakened. The headline employment number rose more than expected at 224k with a mild downward back-month revision of 11k jobs. While the average job growth has slowed the first half of the year, the report delivered signs the economy remains on track and fed fund futures trimmed the amount of easing expected.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/1/19	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	50.1	50.6	50.1	—
7/1/19	ISM Manufacturing	51	51.7	52.1	—
7/1/19	ISM Employment	—	54.5	53.7	—
7/1/19	ISM Prices Paid	53	47.9	53.2	—
7/1/19	ISM New Orders	52.5	50	52.7	—
7/1/19	Construction Spending MoM	0.00%	-0.80%	0.00%	0.40%
7/2/19	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	17.00m	17.30m	17.30m	—
7/3/19	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.10%	1.30%	—
7/3/19	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	12.80%	85.90%	—
7/3/19	ADP Employment Change	140k	102k	27k	41k
7/3/19	Trade Balance	-$54.0b	-$55.5b	-$50.8b	-$51.2b
7/3/19	Initial Jobless Claims	223k	221k	227k	229k
7/3/19	Continuing Claims	1675k	1686k	1688k	1694k
7/3/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	62.6	63.6	—
7/3/19	Markit US Services PMI	50.7	51.5	50.7	—
7/3/19	Markit US Composite PMI	—	51.5	50.6	—
7/3/19	Factory Orders	-0.60%	-0.70%	-0.80%	-1.20%
7/3/19	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	0.10%	0.30%	0.20%
7/3/19	Durable Goods Orders	-1.30%	-1.30%	-1.30%	—
7/3/19	Durables Ex Transportation	—	0.40%	0.30%	—
7/3/19	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.60%	0.70%	—
7/3/19	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	0.50%	0.40%	—
7/3/19	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	56	55.1	56.9	—
7/5/19	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	160k	224k	75k	72k
7/5/19	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	-11k	—	—
7/5/19	Change in Private Payrolls	150k	191k	90k	83k
7/5/19	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	3k	17k	3k	—
7/5/19	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	3.70%	3.60%	—
7/5/19	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.20%	0.30%
7/5/19	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.20%	3.10%	3.10%	—
7/5/19	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.4	34.4	—
7/5/19	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	62.90%	62.80%	—
7/5/19	Underemployment Rate	—	7.20%	7.10%	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

October 23, 2020 Headlines October 23, 2020
October 22, 2020 Headlines October 22, 2020
October 21, 2020 Headlines October 21, 2020

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.