July 5, 2019 Headlines

Following the Non-farm Payrolls report, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded back above the 2% level as the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut weakened. The headline employment number rose more than expected at 224k with a mild downward back-month revision of 11k jobs. While the average job growth has slowed the first half of the year, the report delivered signs the economy remains on track and fed fund futures trimmed the amount of easing expected.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/1/19	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	50.1	50.6	50.1	—
7/1/19	ISM Manufacturing	51	51.7	52.1	—
7/1/19	ISM Employment	—	54.5	53.7	—
7/1/19	ISM Prices Paid	53	47.9	53.2	—
7/1/19	ISM New Orders	52.5	50	52.7	—
7/1/19	Construction Spending MoM	0.00%	-0.80%	0.00%	0.40%
7/2/19	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	17.00m	17.30m	17.30m	—
7/3/19	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-0.10%	1.30%	—
7/3/19	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	12.80%	85.90%	—
7/3/19	ADP Employment Change	140k	102k	27k	41k
7/3/19	Trade Balance	-$54.0b	-$55.5b	-$50.8b	-$51.2b
7/3/19	Initial Jobless Claims	223k	221k	227k	229k
7/3/19	Continuing Claims	1675k	1686k	1688k	1694k
7/3/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	62.6	63.6	—
7/3/19	Markit US Services PMI	50.7	51.5	50.7	—
7/3/19	Markit US Composite PMI	—	51.5	50.6	—
7/3/19	Factory Orders	-0.60%	-0.70%	-0.80%	-1.20%
7/3/19	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	0.10%	0.30%	0.20%
7/3/19	Durable Goods Orders	-1.30%	-1.30%	-1.30%	—
7/3/19	Durables Ex Transportation	—	0.40%	0.30%	—
7/3/19	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.60%	0.70%	—
7/3/19	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	0.50%	0.40%	—
7/3/19	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	56	55.1	56.9	—
7/5/19	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	160k	224k	75k	72k
7/5/19	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	-11k	—	—
7/5/19	Change in Private Payrolls	150k	191k	90k	83k
7/5/19	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	3k	17k	3k	—
7/5/19	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	3.70%	3.60%	—
7/5/19	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.20%	0.30%
7/5/19	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.20%	3.10%	3.10%	—
7/5/19	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.4	34.4	—
7/5/19	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	62.90%	62.80%	—
7/5/19	Underemployment Rate	—	7.20%	7.10%	—

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