July 5, 2019 Headlines

Following the Non-farm Payrolls report, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded back above the 2% level as the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut weakened. The headline employment number rose more than expected at 224k with a mild downward back-month revision of 11k jobs. While the average job growth has slowed the first half of the year, the report delivered signs the economy remains on track and fed fund futures trimmed the amount of easing expected.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/1/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.150.650.1
7/1/19ISM Manufacturing5151.752.1
7/1/19ISM Employment54.553.7
7/1/19ISM Prices Paid5347.953.2
7/1/19ISM New Orders52.55052.7
7/1/19Construction Spending MoM0.00%-0.80%0.00%0.40%
7/2/19Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.30m17.30m
7/3/19MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%1.30%
7/3/19Challenger Job Cuts YoY12.80%85.90%
7/3/19ADP Employment Change140k102k27k41k
7/3/19Trade Balance-$54.0b-$55.5b-$50.8b-$51.2b
7/3/19Initial Jobless Claims223k221k227k229k
7/3/19Continuing Claims1675k1686k1688k1694k
7/3/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.663.6
7/3/19Markit US Services PMI50.751.550.7
7/3/19Markit US Composite PMI51.550.6
7/3/19Factory Orders-0.60%-0.70%-0.80%-1.20%
7/3/19Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%0.30%0.20%
7/3/19Durable Goods Orders-1.30%-1.30%-1.30%
7/3/19Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.30%
7/3/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.70%
7/3/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.40%
7/3/19ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5655.156.9
7/5/19Change in Nonfarm Payrolls160k224k75k72k
7/5/19Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-11k
7/5/19Change in Private Payrolls150k191k90k83k
7/5/19Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k17k3k
7/5/19Unemployment Rate3.60%3.70%3.60%
7/5/19Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.30%
7/5/19Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%3.10%3.10%
7/5/19Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.434.4
7/5/19Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.90%62.80%
7/5/19Underemployment Rate7.20%7.10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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