A better tone in risk markets is pushing Treasury yields higher, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 20 points. Investors are responding positively to reports that the European Union is attempting to coordinate negotiations with the world’s largest auto exporters to reduce/eliminate tariffs within the sector. The trade situation with China is no better this morning, and $34 billion of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow (to which China will likely retaliate). These tariffs would not be significant from an economic perspective, but the greater concern continues to be the risk of further escalation given reports that substantive negotiations between the two countries aren’t currently happening. The minutes of the June 13 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon, and given recent events/headlines, it will be most scrutinized for any discussion of the risks that trade tensions pose on economic and policy outlooks.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/02/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 55.4 | 54.6 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | 0.40% | 1.80% | 0.90% |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.5 | 60.2 | 58.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 56 | 56.3 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 75 | 76.8 | 79.5 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 63.5 | 63.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Revisions: Construction Spending | ||||
| 07/03/2018 | Factory Orders | 0.00% | 0.40% | -0.80% | -0.40% |
| 07/03/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.90% |
| 07/03/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | -0.40% | -0.60% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.00% | -0.30% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.30% | -0.20% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | 17.38m | 16.81m | — |
| 07/04/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.50% | -4.90% | — |
| 07/05/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 19.60% | -4.80% | — |
| 07/05/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | 177k | 178k | 189k |
| 07/05/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 231k | 227k | 228k |
| 07/05/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1718k | 1739k | 1705k | 1707k |
| 07/05/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.3 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 56.5 | — | 56.5 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 56 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 58.3 | — | 58.6 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Trade Balance | -$43.7b | — | -$46.2b | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | — | 223k | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 15k | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 218k | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | — | 18k | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.60% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 07/09/2018 | Consumer Credit | $12.000b | — | $9.262b | — |
| 07/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 107.8 | — |
| 07/10/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6698 | — |
| 07/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 231k | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1739k | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 251.588 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.889 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | — | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$146.8b | — |