A better tone in risk markets is pushing Treasury yields higher, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 20 points. Investors are responding positively to reports that the European Union is attempting to coordinate negotiations with the world’s largest auto exporters to reduce/eliminate tariffs within the sector. The trade situation with China is no better this morning, and $34 billion of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow (to which China will likely retaliate). These tariffs would not be significant from an economic perspective, but the greater concern continues to be the risk of further escalation given reports that substantive negotiations between the two countries aren’t currently happening. The minutes of the June 13 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon, and given recent events/headlines, it will be most scrutinized for any discussion of the risks that trade tensions pose on economic and policy outlooks.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.655.454.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.40%1.80%0.90%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.560.258.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment5656.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid7576.879.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.563.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018Factory Orders0.00%0.40%-0.80%-0.40%
07/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.70%0.40%0.90%
07/03/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.50%-0.40%-0.60%
07/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.00%-0.30%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%-0.20%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.10%
07/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.38m16.81m
07/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%-4.90%
07/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY19.60%-4.80%
07/05/2018ADP Employment Change190k177k178k189k
07/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k231k227k228k
07/05/2018Continuing Claims1718k1739k1705k1707k
07/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.3
07/05/2018Markit US Services PMI56.556.5
07/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI56
07/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.358.6
07/05/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/06/2018Trade Balance-$43.7b-$46.2b
07/06/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k223k
07/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision15k
07/06/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k218k
07/06/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k18k
07/06/2018Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
07/06/2018Underemployment Rate7.60%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.70%
07/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
07/06/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
07/09/2018Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.262b
07/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107.8
07/10/2018JOLTS Job Openings6698
07/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.10%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.00%3.10%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.40%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.60%
07/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
07/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%
07/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims231k
07/12/2018Continuing Claims1739k
07/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI YoY2.90%2.80%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
07/12/2018CPI Index NSA251.588
07/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.889
07/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%
07/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%
07/12/2018Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
07/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
07/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$146.8b