The bid for Treasuries continues this morning with yields down 3-5 basis points across the curve. The S&P 500 rebounded yesterday from down more than 2% to up 0.16% on the day, but futures are down 0.42% a little more than an hour before the open with recession worries still dominating the headlines. Later this morning, the ISM Services Index for June will be released and may shed some light on whether there are any signs of slowing consumer demand in the services sector, including air travel. The JOLTS job openings data for May will be released at the same time, and openings are expected to have fallen from 11.4 million to 10.9 million. The ratio of job openings to total unemployed persons is a metric that Fed Chair Powell has highlighted as symbolic of an “unhealthy” and overheated labor market. The ratio was 1.7:1 when Powell initially raised concerns during a speech in March and currently sits at 1.9:1 ahead of today’s reading.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/05/22 | Factory Orders | 0.50% | 1.60% | 0.30% | 0.70% |
| 07/05/22 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 1.70% | 0.30% | 0.60% |
| 07/05/22 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.70% | — |
| 07/05/22 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | — |
| 07/05/22 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.50% | — |
| 07/05/22 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.80% | 0.80% | — |
| 07/06/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.40% | 0.70% | — |
| 07/06/22 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.6 | — | 51.6 | — |
| 07/06/22 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51.2 | — | 51.2 | — |
| 07/06/22 | ISM Services Index | 54 | — | 55.9 | — |
| 07/06/22 | JOLTS Job Openings | 11000k | — | 11400k | — |
| 07/06/22 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 07/07/22 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -15.80% | — |
| 07/07/22 | Trade Balance | -$84.7b | — | -$87.1b | — |
| 07/07/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 230k | — | 231k | — |
| 07/07/22 | Continuing Claims | 1330k | — | 1328k | — |
| 07/08/22 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -22k | — |
| 07/08/22 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 265k | — | 390k | — |
| 07/08/22 | Change in Private Payrolls | 237k | — | 333k | — |
| 07/08/22 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 23k | — | 18k | — |
| 07/08/22 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 5.00% | — | 5.20% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.6 | — | 34.6 | — |
| 07/08/22 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.40% | — | 62.30% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.10% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 07/08/22 | Consumer Credit | $30.000b | — | $38.069b | — |
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