July 6, 2022 Headlines

The bid for Treasuries continues this morning with yields down 3-5 basis points across the curve. The S&P 500 rebounded yesterday from down more than 2% to up 0.16% on the day, but futures are down 0.42% a little more than an hour before the open with recession worries still dominating the headlines. Later this morning, the ISM Services Index for June will be released and may shed some light on whether there are any signs of slowing consumer demand in the services sector, including air travel. The JOLTS job openings data for May will be released at the same time, and openings are expected to have fallen from 11.4 million to 10.9 million. The ratio of job openings to total unemployed persons is a metric that Fed Chair Powell has highlighted as symbolic of an “unhealthy” and overheated labor market. The ratio was 1.7:1 when Powell initially raised concerns during a speech in March and currently sits at 1.9:1 ahead of today’s reading.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

07/05/22Factory Orders0.50%1.60%0.30%0.70%
07/05/22Factory Orders Ex Trans1.70%0.30%0.60%
07/05/22Durable Goods Orders0.70%0.80%0.70%
07/05/22Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.70%0.70%
07/05/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.50%
07/05/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.80%
07/06/22MBA Mortgage Applications-5.40%0.70%
07/06/22S&P Global US Services PMI51.651.6
07/06/22S&P Global US Composite PMI51.251.2
07/06/22ISM Services Index5455.9
07/06/22JOLTS Job Openings11000k11400k
07/06/22FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/07/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-15.80%
07/07/22Trade Balance-$84.7b-$87.1b
07/07/22Initial Jobless Claims230k231k
07/07/22Continuing Claims1330k1328k
07/08/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-22k
07/08/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls265k390k
07/08/22Change in Private Payrolls237k333k
07/08/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls23k18k
07/08/22Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%
07/08/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
07/08/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.00%5.20%
07/08/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.634.6
07/08/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%62.30%
07/08/22Underemployment Rate7.10%
07/08/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.00%2.00%
07/08/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.70%
07/08/22Consumer Credit$30.000b$38.069b


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