July 6, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are sharply higher and flatter trading in sympathy with weakness in U.K. and European government bonds. Multiple factors are fueling the weakness in European bonds today, including stronger German factory orders, heavy supply from Spain and France, and hawkish comments from a Bank of England leader. Front-end Treasury yields are up 12-14 basis points so far, and the 2-year yield reached as high as 5.12% earlier this morning (currently 5.07%), a new cycle high. Overnight trading volume in Treasury futures was 200% of the recent average, but the U.S. market is still more thinly staffed on this holiday week. Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 last week, effectively in line with expectations. Later this morning, the May JOLTS report will be released, which will provide an updated look at the number of job openings.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/6/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.40% 3.00%
7/6/23 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 25.20% 286.70%
7/6/23 ADP Employment Change 225k 497k 278k 267k
7/6/23 Trade Balance -$69.0b -$69.0b -$74.6b -$74.4b
7/6/23 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 248k 239k 236k
7/6/23 Continuing Claims 1737k 1720k 1742k 1733k
7/6/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 54.1 54.1
7/6/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53 53
7/6/23 JOLTS Job Openings 9900k 10103k
7/6/23 ISM Services Index 51.2 50.3
7/6/23 ISM Services Prices Paid 56.2
7/6/23 ISM Services Employment 49.2
7/6/23 ISM Services New Orders 52.9
7/7/23 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
7/7/23 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 225k 339k
7/7/23 Change in Private Payrolls 200k 283k
7/7/23 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k -2k
7/7/23 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.70%
7/7/23 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
7/7/23 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.30%
7/7/23 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 34.3
7/7/23 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60%
7/7/23 Underemployment Rate 6.70%
7/10/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.00% -0.10%
7/10/23 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.20%
7/10/23 Consumer Credit $20.000b $23.010b
7/11/23 NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.8 89.4
7/12/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.40%
7/12/23 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.10%
7/12/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.40%
7/12/23 CPI YoY 3.00% 4.00%
7/12/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.00% 5.30%
7/12/23 CPI Index NSA 305.291 304.127
7/12/23 CPI Core Index SA 307.824
7/12/23 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -0.70%
7/12/23 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.20%
7/12/23 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/13/23 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% -0.30%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.10% 0.00%
7/13/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.40% 1.10%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.50% 2.80%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.80%
7/13/23 Initial Jobless Claims 248k
7/13/23 Continuing Claims 1720k
7/13/23 Monthly Budget Statement -$240.3b

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.