July 6, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are sharply higher and flatter trading in sympathy with weakness in U.K. and European government bonds. Multiple factors are fueling the weakness in European bonds today, including stronger German factory orders, heavy supply from Spain and France, and hawkish comments from a Bank of England leader. Front-end Treasury yields are up 12-14 basis points so far, and the 2-year yield reached as high as 5.12% earlier this morning (currently 5.07%), a new cycle high. Overnight trading volume in Treasury futures was 200% of the recent average, but the U.S. market is still more thinly staffed on this holiday week. Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 last week, effectively in line with expectations. Later this morning, the May JOLTS report will be released, which will provide an updated look at the number of job openings.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/6/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.40% 3.00%
7/6/23 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 25.20% 286.70%
7/6/23 ADP Employment Change 225k 497k 278k 267k
7/6/23 Trade Balance -$69.0b -$69.0b -$74.6b -$74.4b
7/6/23 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 248k 239k 236k
7/6/23 Continuing Claims 1737k 1720k 1742k 1733k
7/6/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 54.1 54.1
7/6/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53 53
7/6/23 JOLTS Job Openings 9900k 10103k
7/6/23 ISM Services Index 51.2 50.3
7/6/23 ISM Services Prices Paid 56.2
7/6/23 ISM Services Employment 49.2
7/6/23 ISM Services New Orders 52.9
7/7/23 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
7/7/23 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 225k 339k
7/7/23 Change in Private Payrolls 200k 283k
7/7/23 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k -2k
7/7/23 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.70%
7/7/23 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
7/7/23 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.30%
7/7/23 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 34.3
7/7/23 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60%
7/7/23 Underemployment Rate 6.70%
7/10/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.00% -0.10%
7/10/23 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.20%
7/10/23 Consumer Credit $20.000b $23.010b
7/11/23 NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.8 89.4
7/12/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.40%
7/12/23 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.10%
7/12/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.40%
7/12/23 CPI YoY 3.00% 4.00%
7/12/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.00% 5.30%
7/12/23 CPI Index NSA 305.291 304.127
7/12/23 CPI Core Index SA 307.824
7/12/23 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -0.70%
7/12/23 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.20%
7/12/23 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/13/23 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% -0.30%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.10% 0.00%
7/13/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.40% 1.10%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.50% 2.80%
7/13/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.80%
7/13/23 Initial Jobless Claims 248k
7/13/23 Continuing Claims 1720k
7/13/23 Monthly Budget Statement -$240.3b


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