Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher following the release of the June jobs report (and a relatively quiet overnight session). European equities and U.S. futures have traded flat so far this morning, and major Asian markets were up roughly 1% on the day. As expected, $34 billion of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect overnight, and China responded in kind with the same amount of retaliatory tariffs (includes soybeans and autos).

Nonfarm payrolls added 213,000 jobs in June (195k expected), and the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 37,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y in June, both of which were below expectations. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate rose 20 bps to 4% (29 bps increase if rounding to 3 decimals), but it was largely attributable to an increase in labor force participation. A 102,000 increase in household employment was outpaced by a 601,000 increase in the official labor pool, which pushed the participation rate up 20 bps to 62.9%. The U-6 underemployment rate also bounced higher by 20 bps to 7.8%. Overall, it was a solid report from a job growth perspective; the wage growth was just a little underwhelming for the markets, which explains the modest rally in Treasuries at the moment.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.655.454.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.40%1.80%0.90%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.560.258.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment5656.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid7576.879.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.563.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018Factory Orders0.00%0.40%-0.80%-0.40%
07/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.70%0.40%0.90%
07/03/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.50%-0.40%-0.60%
07/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.00%-0.30%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%-0.20%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.10%
07/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.38m16.81m
07/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%-4.90%
07/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY19.60%-4.80%
07/05/2018ADP Employment Change190k177k178k189k
07/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k231k227k228k
07/05/2018Continuing Claims1718k1739k1705k1707k
07/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.657.3
07/05/2018Markit US Services PMI56.556.556.5
07/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.256
07/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.359.158.6
07/05/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/06/2018Trade Balance-$43.6b-$43.1b-$46.2b-$46.1b
07/06/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k213k223k244k
07/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision37k15k
07/06/2018Change in Private Payrolls190k202k218k239k
07/06/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k36k18k19k
07/06/2018Unemployment Rate3.80%4.00%3.80%
07/06/2018Underemployment Rate7.80%7.60%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.70%2.70%
07/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.5
07/06/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.90%62.70%
07/09/2018Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.262b
07/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105.5107.8
07/10/2018JOLTS Job Openings6698
07/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.10%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.10%3.10%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.40%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.60%
07/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
07/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%
07/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims231k
07/12/2018Continuing Claims1739k
07/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI YoY2.90%2.80%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
07/12/2018CPI Index NSA252.1251.588
07/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.889
07/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%
07/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%
07/12/2018Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
07/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.6
07/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$146.8b
07/13/2018Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.60%
07/13/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%
07/13/2018Import Price Index YoY4.30%
07/13/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%
07/13/2018Export Price Index YoY4.90%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.298.2
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.5
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.3
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%