Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher following the release of the June jobs report (and a relatively quiet overnight session). European equities and U.S. futures have traded flat so far this morning, and major Asian markets were up roughly 1% on the day. As expected, $34 billion of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect overnight, and China responded in kind with the same amount of retaliatory tariffs (includes soybeans and autos).
Nonfarm payrolls added 213,000 jobs in June (195k expected), and the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 37,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y in June, both of which were below expectations. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate rose 20 bps to 4% (29 bps increase if rounding to 3 decimals), but it was largely attributable to an increase in labor force participation. A 102,000 increase in household employment was outpaced by a 601,000 increase in the official labor pool, which pushed the participation rate up 20 bps to 62.9%. The U-6 underemployment rate also bounced higher by 20 bps to 7.8%. Overall, it was a solid report from a job growth perspective; the wage growth was just a little underwhelming for the markets, which explains the modest rally in Treasuries at the moment.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/02/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 55.4 | 54.6 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | 0.40% | 1.80% | 0.90% |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.5 | 60.2 | 58.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Employment | — | 56 | 56.3 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 75 | 76.8 | 79.5 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | 63.5 | 63.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Revisions: Construction Spending | ||||
| 07/03/2018 | Factory Orders | 0.00% | 0.40% | -0.80% | -0.40% |
| 07/03/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.90% |
| 07/03/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | -0.40% | -0.60% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.00% | -0.30% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.30% | -0.20% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.00m | 17.38m | 16.81m | — |
| 07/04/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -0.50% | -4.90% | — |
| 07/05/2018 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 19.60% | -4.80% | — |
| 07/05/2018 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | 177k | 178k | 189k |
| 07/05/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 231k | 227k | 228k |
| 07/05/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1718k | 1739k | 1705k | 1707k |
| 07/05/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 57.6 | 57.3 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 56.2 | 56 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 58.3 | 59.1 | 58.6 | — |
| 07/05/2018 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Trade Balance | -$43.6b | -$43.1b | -$46.2b | -$46.1b |
| 07/06/2018 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 195k | 213k | 223k | 244k |
| 07/06/2018 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 37k | 15k | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | 202k | 218k | 239k |
| 07/06/2018 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | 36k | 18k | 19k |
| 07/06/2018 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | 4.00% | 3.80% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.80% | 7.60% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.80% | 2.70% | 2.70% | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | — |
| 07/06/2018 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | 62.90% | 62.70% | — |
| 07/09/2018 | Consumer Credit | $12.000b | — | $9.262b | — |
| 07/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105.5 | — | 107.8 | — |
| 07/10/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 6698 | — |
| 07/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 231k | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1739k | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 252.1 | — | 251.588 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.889 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.6 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$146.8b | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 4.30% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 4.90% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.2 | — | 98.2 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 116.5 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.3 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |