July 7, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper amid an improved risk tone in global markets overnight. The minutes of the June 15 FOMC meeting released yesterday afternoon painted a picture of a Fed worried about an overheated labor market and “entrenched” inflation expectations. The latter was most certainly influenced by the 30 bps increase in consumer long-run inflation expectations to 3.3% in the preliminary May University of Michigan survey, which was released on June 10. The minutes are obviously a little stale in a fast-moving environment, and since that time, the final update of that same report showed long-run inflation expectations up only 10 bps to 3.1%. Additionally, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has fallen nearly 20% since June 9. The job openings data released yesterday were higher than expected, but they are clearly trending lower since the peak in March. Does that ease the worries of Fed leaders? Time will tell, but the combination of the hawkish FOMC minutes and yesterday’s economic data was enough to give back some of the rally of the last two weeks in Treasuries.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
07/05/22 Factory Orders 0.50% 1.60% 0.30% 0.70%
07/05/22 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.70% 0.30% 0.60%
07/05/22 Durable Goods Orders 0.70% 0.80% 0.70%
07/05/22 Durables Ex Transportation 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
07/05/22 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.60% 0.50%
07/05/22 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.80% 0.80%
07/06/22 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.40% 0.70%
07/06/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 51.6 52.7 51.6
07/06/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 51.2 52.3 51.2
07/06/22 ISM Services Index 54 55.3 55.9
07/06/22 JOLTS Job Openings 11000k 11254k 11400k 11681k
07/06/22 FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/07/22 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 58.80% -15.80%
07/07/22 Trade Balance -$84.7b -$85.5b -$87.1b -$86.7b
07/07/22 Initial Jobless Claims 230k 235k 231k
07/07/22 Continuing Claims 1328k 1375k 1328k 1324k
07/08/22 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
07/08/22 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 268k 390k
07/08/22 Change in Private Payrolls 235k 333k
07/08/22 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 23k 18k
07/08/22 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60%
07/08/22 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
07/08/22 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.00% 5.20%
07/08/22 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6 34.6
07/08/22 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.40% 62.30%
07/08/22 Underemployment Rate 7.10%
07/08/22 Wholesale Inventories MoM 2.00% 2.00%
07/08/22 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.70%
07/08/22 Consumer Credit $30.000b $38.069b

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