July 7, 2023 Headlines

After 14 consecutive months of upside surprises, nonfarm payrolls finally came in below expectations in June. According to the report, there were 209,000 jobs added last month, 21,000 less than expected, and private payrolls added 51,000 less jobs than expected (149k). This is the smallest number of jobs added since December 2020, and it follows the recent increases in weekly jobless claims. That said, 200k+ job growth is still a solid number, and the rest of the report showed no softening in the labor market. The headline unemployment rate dipped down to 3.6%, as expected, and average hourly earnings growth exceeded expectations at 0.4% m/m and 4.4% y/y. Treasuries initially rallied on the softer job growth figure but have since reversed course given that the report is unlikely to alter the Fed’s guidance for more rate hikes, including one at the July 26 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
07/07/23 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -110k
07/07/23 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 230k 209k 339k 306k
07/07/23 Change in Private Payrolls 200k 149k 283k 259k
07/07/23 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k 7k -2k -3k
07/07/23 Unemployment Rate 3.60% 3.60% 3.70%
07/07/23 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
07/07/23 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.20% 4.40% 4.30% 4.40%
07/07/23 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 34.4 34.3
07/07/23 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60% 62.60% 62.60%
07/07/23 Underemployment Rate 6.90% 6.70%

 

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