The Treasury curve is a bit steeper and higher this morning, with the spread between the 2 and 10-year part of the curve up about a basis point, but still sits at around 29 bps which is around the lowest level since 2007. The selloff in rates was sparked by an increase in optimism in risk markets as investors decided to shift their focus to the upcoming earnings season.

The calendar is light today, but Mario Draghi’s address to the European Parliament on Monday should garner attention from the markets looking to glean any information regarding the timing of a rate increase in 2019. Additionally, this Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release CPI data for June with the market expecting a 0.2% increase in both headline and core inflation readings.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
07/09/2018 Consumer Credit $12.000b $9.262b
07/10/2018 NFIB Small Business Optimism 105.8 107.8
07/10/2018 JOLTS Job Openings 6660 6698
07/11/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.50%
07/11/2018 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.50%
07/11/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30%
07/11/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10%
07/11/2018 PPI Final Demand YoY 3.10% 3.10%
07/11/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.60% 2.40%
07/11/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.60%
07/11/2018 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.80%
07/11/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.50%
07/12/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 231k
07/12/2018 Continuing Claims 1739k
07/12/2018 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20%
07/12/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
07/12/2018 CPI YoY 2.90% 2.80%
07/12/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.20%
07/12/2018 CPI Index NSA 252.051 251.588
07/12/2018 CPI Core Index SA 257.361 256.889
07/12/2018 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.30%
07/12/2018 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.00%
07/12/2018 Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
07/12/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 57.6
07/12/2018 Monthly Budget Statement -$80.0b -$146.8b
07/13/2018 Import Price Index MoM 0.10% 0.60%
07/13/2018 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.30% 0.10%
07/13/2018 Import Price Index YoY 4.70% 4.30%
07/13/2018 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.60%
07/13/2018 Export Price Index YoY 4.90%
07/13/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment 98 98.2
07/13/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 116.5
07/13/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations 86.3
07/13/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00%
07/13/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
07/16/2018 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.50% 0.80%
07/16/2018 Empire Manufacturing 25
07/16/2018 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 0.90%
07/16/2018 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.80%
07/16/2018 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50%
07/16/2018 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.30%