The Treasury curve is a bit steeper and higher this morning, with the spread between the 2 and 10-year part of the curve up about a basis point, but still sits at around 29 bps which is around the lowest level since 2007. The selloff in rates was sparked by an increase in optimism in risk markets as investors decided to shift their focus to the upcoming earnings season.

The calendar is light today, but Mario Draghi’s address to the European Parliament on Monday should garner attention from the markets looking to glean any information regarding the timing of a rate increase in 2019. Additionally, this Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release CPI data for June with the market expecting a 0.2% increase in both headline and core inflation readings.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/09/2018Consumer Credit$12.000b$9.262b
07/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105.8107.8
07/10/2018JOLTS Job Openings66606698
07/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.10%3.10%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.40%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.60%
07/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
07/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.50%
07/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k231k
07/12/2018Continuing Claims1739k
07/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI YoY2.90%2.80%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
07/12/2018CPI Index NSA252.051251.588
07/12/2018CPI Core Index SA257.361256.889
07/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%
07/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%
07/12/2018Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
07/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.6
07/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$80.0b-$146.8b
07/13/2018Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.60%
07/13/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.10%
07/13/2018Import Price Index YoY4.70%4.30%
07/13/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%
07/13/2018Export Price Index YoY4.90%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9898.2
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.5
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.3
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
07/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.80%
07/16/2018Empire Manufacturing25
07/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.90%
07/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.80%
07/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.50%
07/16/2018Business Inventories0.30%0.30%