June 1, 2022 Headlines

A modest risk-on tone in financial markets has Treasury yields slightly higher across the curve ahead of new economic data (ISM and JOLTS job openings) and multiple Fed speakers (Williams and Bullard). The job openings data has been more closely watched ever since Fed Chair Powell highlighted the ratio of job openings to total unemployed as a sign of “unhealthy” tightness in labor markets back in March. At the time, the ratio was 1.7:1 and has since risen to just under 2:1. The MBA reported a 2.3% decline in mortgage applications last week, including a 5.4% decline in refinance applications and 0.6% decline in purchase applications. The average 30-year conventional mortgage rate fell 13 bps week-over-week to 5.33% according to the MBA survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/31/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	2.00%	1.50%	2.10%	1.90%
05/31/22	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	4.60%	3.30%	3.60%
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.90%	2.42%	2.39%	—
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.00%	21.17%	20.20%	20.26%
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	20.55%	19.80%	20.01%
05/31/22	MNI Chicago PMI	55	60.3	56.4	—
05/31/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	103.6	106.4	107.3	108.6
05/31/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	149.6	152.6	152.9
05/31/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	77.5	77.2	79
05/31/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	1.5	-7.3	1.1	—
06/01/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.30%	-1.20%	—
06/01/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	—	57.5	—
06/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
06/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	54.5	—	55.4	—
06/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	81	—	84.6	—
06/01/22	ISM New Orders	52.9	—	53.5	—
06/01/22	ISM Employment	52	—	50.9	—
06/01/22	JOLTS Job Openings	11350k	—	11549k	—
06/01/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
06/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.70m	—	14.29m	—
06/02/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	6.00%	—
06/02/22	ADP Employment Change	300k	—	247k	—
06/02/22	Nonfarm Productivity	-7.50%	—	-7.50%	—
06/02/22	Unit Labor Costs	11.60%	—	11.60%	—
06/02/22	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	—	210k	—
06/02/22	Continuing Claims	1340k	—	1346k	—
06/02/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	2.50%	2.10%
06/02/22	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	2.20%	1.80%
06/02/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
06/02/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
06/02/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
06/02/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
06/03/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	-39k	—
06/03/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	325k	—	428k	—
06/03/22	Change in Private Payrolls	300k	—	406k	—
06/03/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	39k	—	55k	—
06/03/22	Unemployment Rate	3.50%	—	3.60%	—
06/03/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
06/03/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.20%	—	5.50%	—
06/03/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.6	—
06/03/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.30%	—	62.20%	—
06/03/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
06/03/22	S&P Global US Services PMI	53.5	—	53.5	—
06/03/22	S&P Global US Composite PMI	53.8	—	53.8	—
06/03/22	ISM Services Index	56.5	—	57.1	—

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