June 1, 2022 Headlines

A modest risk-on tone in financial markets has Treasury yields slightly higher across the curve ahead of new economic data (ISM and JOLTS job openings) and multiple Fed speakers (Williams and Bullard). The job openings data has been more closely watched ever since Fed Chair Powell highlighted the ratio of job openings to total unemployed as a sign of “unhealthy” tightness in labor markets back in March. At the time, the ratio was 1.7:1 and has since risen to just under 2:1.  The MBA reported a 2.3% decline in mortgage applications last week, including a 5.4% decline in refinance applications and 0.6% decline in purchase applications. The average 30-year conventional mortgage rate fell 13 bps week-over-week to 5.33% according to the MBA survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

05/31/22FHFA House Price Index MoM2.00%1.50%2.10%1.90%
05/31/22House Price Purchase Index QoQ4.60%3.30%3.60%
05/31/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.90%2.42%2.39%
05/31/22S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%21.17%20.20%20.26%
05/31/22S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA20.55%19.80%20.01%
05/31/22MNI Chicago PMI5560.356.4
05/31/22Conf. Board Consumer Confidence103.6106.4107.3108.6
05/31/22Conf. Board Present Situation149.6152.6152.9
05/31/22Conf. Board Expectations77.577.279
05/31/22Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1.5-7.31.1
06/01/22MBA Mortgage Applications-2.30%-1.20%
06/01/22S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI57.557.5
06/01/22Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.10%
06/01/22ISM Manufacturing54.555.4
06/01/22ISM Prices Paid8184.6
06/01/22ISM New Orders52.953.5
06/01/22ISM Employment5250.9
06/01/22JOLTS Job Openings11350k11549k
06/01/22U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
06/01/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.70m14.29m
06/02/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY6.00%
06/02/22ADP Employment Change300k247k
06/02/22Nonfarm Productivity-7.50%-7.50%
06/02/22Unit Labor Costs11.60%11.60%
06/02/22Initial Jobless Claims210k210k
06/02/22Continuing Claims1340k1346k
06/02/22Factory Orders Ex Trans2.50%2.10%
06/02/22Factory Orders0.70%2.20%1.80%
06/02/22Durable Goods Orders0.40%0.40%
06/02/22Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.30%
06/02/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.30%
06/02/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%
06/03/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-39k
06/03/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls325k428k
06/03/22Change in Private Payrolls300k406k
06/03/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls39k55k
06/03/22Unemployment Rate3.50%3.60%
06/03/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.30%
06/03/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.20%5.50%
06/03/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.634.6
06/03/22Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%62.20%
06/03/22Underemployment Rate7.00%
06/03/22S&P Global US Services PMI53.553.5
06/03/22S&P Global US Composite PMI53.853.8
06/03/22ISM Services Index56.557.1

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