June 10, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are modestly higher ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, and equity futures are slightly higher. The Organisation for Economic Co-operations and Development (OECD) is now forecasting a 6% contraction in global GDP  for 2020, which would be the worst recession outside of wartime in 100 years according to the group. If a second wave of COVID-19 infections comes, the OECD is forecasting a 7.6% contraction.  The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 9.3% for the week ended June 5, which included a 11.4% increase in refinance applications and a 5.3% increase in purchase applications. This was the first increase in the refi index since the week ended April 10, and the average 30-year and 15-year conventional rates in the survey were essentially unchanged from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/9/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism92.594.490.9
6/9/2020JOLTS Job Openings5750504661916011
6/9/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%
6/9/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-2.00%-16.90%-5.20%-5.10%
6/10/2020MBA Mortgage Applications9.30%-3.90%
6/10/2020CPI MoM0.00%-0.10%-0.80%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.00%-0.10%-0.40%
6/10/2020CPI YoY0.30%0.10%0.30%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.20%1.40%
6/10/2020CPI Index NSA256.823256.39256.389
6/10/2020CPI Core Index SA265.601265.44265.601
6/10/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY6.50%7.50%7.60%
6/10/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY7.40%6.90%7.00%
6/10/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$504.0b-$207.8b
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
6/10/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-1.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.90%
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-1.20%-1.20%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.40%0.60%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY-0.60%-0.30%
6/11/2020Initial Jobless Claims1550k1877k
6/11/2020Continuing Claims20000k21487k
6/11/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort37
6/12/2020Import Price Index MoM0.70%-2.60%
6/12/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.30%-0.50%
6/12/2020Import Price Index YoY-6.30%-6.80%
6/12/2020Export Price Index MoM0.70%-3.30%
6/12/2020Export Price Index YoY-7.00%
6/12/2020Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7572.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions8582.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Expectations6765.9
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
6/12/2020Household Change in Net Worth$3148b


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