Treasury prices are modestly lower this morning ahead of fresh supply (3yr and 10yr note auctions), and overnight trading volumes (Treasury futures) were less than 60% of the trailing 20-day average. Investors are cautiously awaiting this week’s central bank announcements, as well as (to a lesser extent) the Trump/Kim summit that begins later tonight. The G7 summit in Canada ended essentially in the same way it began, with President Trump criticizing world leaders on trade practices. The U.S. was still expected to endorse the final communique from the meeting, but President Trump ordered his team to withhold his signature after Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau again criticized the steel/aluminum tariffs. Investors continue to take trade headlines in stride, with the general understanding that escalated rhetoric, including tweets, imply actual policy changes. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by FOMC and ECB meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, and on the data front, May CPI (tomorrow) and retail sales (Thursday) are scheduled for release.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/12/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105104.8
06/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
06/12/2018CPI YoY2.70%2.50%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
06/12/2018CPI Index NSA251.652250.546
06/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.897256.45
06/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%
06/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%
06/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$127.0b$214.3b
06/13/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%2.60%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%1.75%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%1.50%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.30%0.20%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%0.50%
06/14/2018Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%
06/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
06/14/2018Import Price Index YoY3.90%3.30%
06/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.60%
06/14/2018Export Price Index YoY3.80%
06/14/2018Initial Jobless Claims222k222k
06/14/2018Continuing Claims1734k1741k
06/14/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort54.8
06/14/2018Business Inventories0.30%0.00%
06/15/2018Empire Manufacturing18.520.1
06/15/2018Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.70%
06/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.50%
06/15/2018Capacity Utilization78.10%78.00%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.598
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.8
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Expectations89.1
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
06/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows-$38.5b
06/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$61.8b
06/18/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7070