June 12, 2019 Headlines

The US Treasury curve bull-steepened overnight and equities are down slightly across the globe as recent headlines have dampened the optimism of a trade deal. Early in the Asian session, Reuters published a report that stated there has been limited preparation for the Trump-Xi meeting. Additionally, China has hundreds of laws that allow them to steal intellectual property and the process of changing these laws would be too burdensome. On the other side, President Trump announced that he is personally delaying a trade deal with China until Beijing returns to the negotiated terms earlier this year. 

This morning, the May CPI release came in softer than expected at .1% MoM in both the headline and core numbers. When looking YoY, CPI came in at 1.8% which was a decrease from 2.0% from last month. This release mirrors the Producer Price Index from yesterday that measures the price change from the perspective of the seller. There are differing opinions on whether the slower than expected inflation adds to the Federal Reserves case to cut interest rates amid increasing concerns of global growth and trade tensions. Looking ahead, the next major economic data points coming in ahead of the FOMC meeting next week are Retail Sales and Industrial production on Friday morning.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/12/2019MBA Mortgage Applications26.80%1.50%
6/12/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.10%0.30%
6/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
6/12/2019CPI YoY1.90%1.80%2.00%
6/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.00%2.10%
6/12/2019CPI Core Index SA262.28262.03261.735
6/12/2019CPI Index NSA256.179256.09255.548
6/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.30%1.20%
6/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.00%0.90%
6/12/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$202.5b-$146.8b
6/13/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.20%
6/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.60%
6/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-0.20%
6/13/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.20%0.20%
6/13/2019Export Price Index YoY0.30%
6/13/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k218k
6/13/2019Continuing Claims1660k1682k
6/13/2019Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
6/13/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.7
6/14/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%-0.20%
6/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.10%
6/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%-0.20%
6/14/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.00%
6/14/2019Industrial Production MoM0.20%-0.50%
6/14/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%-0.50%
6/14/2019Capacity Utilization78.00%77.90%
6/14/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98100
6/14/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions109110
6/14/2019U. of Mich. Expectations9293.5
6/14/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
6/14/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
6/14/2019Business Inventories0.50%0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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