June 12, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are giving back some of yesterday’s rally and curve flattening amid an improved risk tone. S&P 500 futures are up 2% ahead of the open following yesterday’s 6% decline in the index. It felt like we were due for a day like yesterday. Equities had been moving seemingly in one direction (higher) for weeks despite a still uncertain economic outlook, and a combination of negative headlines triggered the correction (if you can call it that).  Yesterday’s move in Treasuries was more subdued, and the Fed’s decision to floor purchases for the time being, as well as dangle the idea of yield curve control as a future policy option, should keep yields in a tighter range for the foreseeable future.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/9/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism92.594.490.9
6/9/2020JOLTS Job Openings5750504661916011
6/9/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%0.40%
6/9/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-2.00%-16.90%-5.20%-5.10%
6/10/2020MBA Mortgage Applications9.30%-3.90%
6/10/2020CPI MoM0.00%-0.10%-0.80%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.00%-0.10%-0.40%
6/10/2020CPI YoY0.30%0.10%0.30%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.20%1.40%
6/10/2020CPI Index NSA256.823256.394256.389
6/10/2020CPI Core Index SA265.601265.441265.601
6/10/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY6.50%7.50%7.60%
6/10/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY7.40%6.90%7.00%
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
6/10/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$504.0b-$398.8b-$207.8b
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
6/10/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.40%-1.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.10%-0.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%0.10%-0.90%
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-1.20%-0.80%-1.20%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.40%0.30%0.60%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY-0.60%-0.40%-0.30%
6/11/2020Initial Jobless Claims1550k1542k1877k1897k
6/11/2020Continuing Claims20000k20929k21487k21268k
6/11/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort38.737
6/11/2020Household Change in Net Worth-$6548b$3148b$3096b
6/12/2020Import Price Index MoM0.60%1.00%-2.60%
6/12/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%0.10%-0.50%-0.40%
6/12/2020Import Price Index YoY-6.40%-6.00%-6.80%
6/12/2020Export Price Index MoM0.50%0.50%-3.30%
6/12/2020Export Price Index YoY-6.00%-7.00%-6.80%
6/12/2020Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7572.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions85.282.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Expectations6965.9
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%3.20%
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%


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