June 12, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to start what should be a more eventful week. The Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will make policy decisions this week, beginning with the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The general expectation is for a ‘hawkish pause,’ where no rate hike is announced but the guidance infers that the inflation fight is not over. Beyond monetary policy decisions, markets will be focused on government bond supply (U.S. and Europe), tomorrow’s CPI report, weekly jobless claims, and May retail sales data.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/12/2023 Monthly Budget Statement -$236.0b $176.2b
6/13/2023 NFIB Small Business Optimism 88.4 89
6/13/2023 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.40%
6/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.40%
6/13/2023 CPI YoY 4.10% 4.90%
6/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.20% 5.50%
6/13/2023 CPI Index NSA 304.065 303.363
6/13/2023 CPI Core Index SA 307.58 306.489
6/13/2023 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -1.10% -1.20%
6/13/2023 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -0.50% -0.60%
6/14/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.40%
6/14/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.10% 0.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.50% 2.30%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.90% 3.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.00% 3.40%
6/14/2023 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.25% 5.25%
6/14/2023 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.00% 5.00%
6/14/2023 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.15% 5.15%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.20% 0.40%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 0.40%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.60%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Control Group 0.20% 0.70%
6/15/2023 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.40%
6/15/2023 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% -0.10%
6/15/2023 Import Price Index YoY -5.60% -4.80%
6/15/2023 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.20%
6/15/2023 Export Price Index YoY -5.90%
6/15/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 250k 261k
6/15/2023 Continuing Claims 1787k 1757k
6/15/2023 Empire Manufacturing -15.1 -31.8
6/15/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -13 -10.4
6/15/2023 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.50%
6/15/2023 Capacity Utilization 79.70% 79.70%
6/15/2023 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.00% 1.00%
6/15/2023 Business Inventories 0.20% -0.10%
6/15/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $133.3b
6/15/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $56.7b
6/16/2023 New York Fed Services Business Activity -16.8
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60.1 59.2
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 64.9
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 55.4
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.10% 4.20%
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.10% 3.10%
6/19/2023 NAHB Housing Market Index 50


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