June 12, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to start what should be a more eventful week. The Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will make policy decisions this week, beginning with the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The general expectation is for a ‘hawkish pause,’ where no rate hike is announced but the guidance infers that the inflation fight is not over. Beyond monetary policy decisions, markets will be focused on government bond supply (U.S. and Europe), tomorrow’s CPI report, weekly jobless claims, and May retail sales data.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/12/2023 Monthly Budget Statement -$236.0b $176.2b
6/13/2023 NFIB Small Business Optimism 88.4 89
6/13/2023 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.40%
6/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.40%
6/13/2023 CPI YoY 4.10% 4.90%
6/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.20% 5.50%
6/13/2023 CPI Index NSA 304.065 303.363
6/13/2023 CPI Core Index SA 307.58 306.489
6/13/2023 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -1.10% -1.20%
6/13/2023 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -0.50% -0.60%
6/14/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.40%
6/14/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.10% 0.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.50% 2.30%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.90% 3.20%
6/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.00% 3.40%
6/14/2023 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.25% 5.25%
6/14/2023 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.00% 5.00%
6/14/2023 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.15% 5.15%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.20% 0.40%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 0.40%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.60%
6/15/2023 Retail Sales Control Group 0.20% 0.70%
6/15/2023 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.40%
6/15/2023 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% -0.10%
6/15/2023 Import Price Index YoY -5.60% -4.80%
6/15/2023 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.20%
6/15/2023 Export Price Index YoY -5.90%
6/15/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 250k 261k
6/15/2023 Continuing Claims 1787k 1757k
6/15/2023 Empire Manufacturing -15.1 -31.8
6/15/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -13 -10.4
6/15/2023 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.50%
6/15/2023 Capacity Utilization 79.70% 79.70%
6/15/2023 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.00% 1.00%
6/15/2023 Business Inventories 0.20% -0.10%
6/15/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $133.3b
6/15/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $56.7b
6/16/2023 New York Fed Services Business Activity -16.8
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60.1 59.2
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 64.9
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 55.4
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.10% 4.20%
6/16/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.10% 3.10%
6/19/2023 NAHB Housing Market Index 50

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.