Treasury prices are lower this morning as investors digest headlines from the U.S./North Korea summit and May CPI. The summit concluded positively with a commitment to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, but there was little/nothing provided with regards to the specific details of the agreement. As such, there hasn’t been much of a reaction in global equities to this point (S&P 500 futures essentially unchanged). On the data front, the May CPI report was in line with expectations, revealing core consumer price growth at 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y. This is the highest year-over-year core rate since February 2017, and if anything, it further solidifies market expectations for a Fed rate hike tomorrow. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged 3 points in May to the highest level since 1983 (second highest reading in 45-year index history). The May report included several record readings, including 35% of survey participants reporting compensation increases, and earnings/sales trends and  expansion plans set survey records as well.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior
06/12/2018 NFIB Small Business Optimism May 105 107.8 104.8
06/12/2018 CPI MoM May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
06/12/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM May 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
06/12/2018 CPI YoY May 2.80% 2.80% 2.50%
06/12/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY May 2.20% 2.20% 2.10%
06/12/2018 CPI Index NSA May 251.611 251.588 250.546
06/12/2018 CPI Core Index SA May 256.884 256.889 256.45
06/12/2018 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY May 0.30% 0.40%
06/12/2018 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY May 0.00% 0.20%
06/12/2018 Monthly Budget Statement May -$144.0b -$88.4b
06/13/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 8-Jun 4.10%
06/13/2018 PPI Final Demand MoM May 0.30% 0.10%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM May 0.20% 0.20%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM May 0.20% 0.10%
06/13/2018 PPI Final Demand YoY May 2.80% 2.60%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY May 2.30% 2.30%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY May 2.50%
06/13/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 13-Jun 2.00% 1.75%
06/13/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 13-Jun 1.75% 1.50%
06/14/2018 Retail Sales Advance MoM May 0.40% 0.30%
06/14/2018 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM May 0.50% 0.30%
06/14/2018 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas May 0.40% 0.30%
06/14/2018 Retail Sales Control Group May 0.40% 0.40%
06/14/2018 Import Price Index MoM May 0.50% 0.30%
06/14/2018 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM May 0.20% 0.10%
06/14/2018 Import Price Index YoY May 3.90% 3.30%
06/14/2018 Export Price Index MoM May 0.30% 0.60%
06/14/2018 Export Price Index YoY May 3.80%
06/14/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 9-Jun 223k 222k
06/14/2018 Continuing Claims 2-Jun 1734k 1741k
06/14/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 10-Jun 54.8
06/14/2018 Business Inventories Apr 0.30% 0.00%
06/15/2018 Empire Manufacturing Jun 19 20.1
06/15/2018 Industrial Production MoM May 0.20% 0.70%
06/15/2018 Manufacturing (SIC) Production May 0.10% 0.50%
06/15/2018 Capacity Utilization May 78.10% 78.00%
06/15/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun P 98.5 98
06/15/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Jun P 111.8
06/15/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations Jun P 89.1
06/15/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Jun P 2.80%
06/15/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Jun P 2.50%
06/15/2018 Total Net TIC Flows Apr -$38.5b
06/15/2018 Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr $61.8b
06/18/2018 NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 70 70
06/19/2018 Housing Starts May 1315k 1287k
06/19/2018 Housing Starts MoM May 1.90% -3.70%
06/19/2018 Building Permits May 1335k 1352k
06/19/2018 Building Permits MoM May -2.10% -1.80%