Treasury prices are lower this morning as investors digest headlines from the U.S./North Korea summit and May CPI. The summit concluded positively with a commitment to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, but there was little/nothing provided with regards to the specific details of the agreement. As such, there hasn’t been much of a reaction in global equities to this point (S&P 500 futures essentially unchanged). On the data front, the May CPI report was in line with expectations, revealing core consumer price growth at 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y. This is the highest year-over-year core rate since February 2017, and if anything, it further solidifies market expectations for a Fed rate hike tomorrow. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged 3 points in May to the highest level since 1983 (second highest reading in 45-year index history). The May report included several record readings, including 35% of survey participants reporting compensation increases, and earnings/sales trends and  expansion plans set survey records as well.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
06/12/2018NFIB Small Business OptimismMay105107.8104.8
06/12/2018CPI MoMMay0.20%0.20%0.20%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMMay0.20%0.20%0.10%
06/12/2018CPI YoYMay2.80%2.80%2.50%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYMay2.20%2.20%2.10%
06/12/2018CPI Index NSAMay251.611251.588250.546
06/12/2018CPI Core Index SAMay256.884256.889256.45
06/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYMay0.30%0.40%
06/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYMay0.00%0.20%
06/12/2018Monthly Budget StatementMay-$144.0b-$88.4b
06/13/2018MBA Mortgage Applications8-Jun4.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand MoMMay0.30%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMMay0.20%0.20%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMMay0.20%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand YoYMay2.80%2.60%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYMay2.30%2.30%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYMay2.50%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)13-Jun2.00%1.75%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)13-Jun1.75%1.50%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoMMay0.40%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMMay0.50%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasMay0.40%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Control GroupMay0.40%0.40%
06/14/2018Import Price Index MoMMay0.50%0.30%
06/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMMay0.20%0.10%
06/14/2018Import Price Index YoYMay3.90%3.30%
06/14/2018Export Price Index MoMMay0.30%0.60%
06/14/2018Export Price Index YoYMay3.80%
06/14/2018Initial Jobless Claims9-Jun223k222k
06/14/2018Continuing Claims2-Jun1734k1741k
06/14/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort10-Jun54.8
06/14/2018Business InventoriesApr0.30%0.00%
06/15/2018Empire ManufacturingJun1920.1
06/15/2018Industrial Production MoMMay0.20%0.70%
06/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionMay0.10%0.50%
06/15/2018Capacity UtilizationMay78.10%78.00%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. SentimentJun P98.598
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Current ConditionsJun P111.8
06/15/2018U. of Mich. ExpectationsJun P89.1
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationJun P2.80%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationJun P2.50%
06/15/2018Total Net TIC FlowsApr-$38.5b
06/15/2018Net Long-term TIC FlowsApr$61.8b
06/18/2018NAHB Housing Market IndexJun7070
06/19/2018Housing StartsMay1315k1287k
06/19/2018Housing Starts MoMMay1.90%-3.70%
06/19/2018Building PermitsMay1335k1352k
06/19/2018Building Permits MoMMay-2.10%-1.80%