June 13, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are sharply higher this morning with yields up roughly 10 bps across the curve. The 10-year is sitting at 3.27%, its highest level since 2011, and the 2-year is at its highest level since 2007. The market is now pricing in 175 bps of rate hikes from the Fed by September. Investors are concerned over the possibility of a hard landing as the Fed and other central banks work to combat inflation. We’ll get another look at price data with tomorrow’s PPI release which is expected to show an +0.8% m/m increase and +10.8% y/y.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Period	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior
06/14/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	May	93	—	93.2
06/14/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	May	0.80%	—	0.50%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	May	0.60%	—	0.40%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	May	0.50%	—	0.60%
06/14/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	May	10.80%	—	11.00%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	May	8.60%	—	8.80%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	May	—	—	6.90%
06/15/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	10-Jun	—	—	-6.50%
06/15/22	Empire Manufacturing	Jun	3	—	-11.6
06/15/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	May	0.10%	—	0.90%
06/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	May	0.70%	—	0.60%
06/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	May	0.40%	—	1.00%
06/15/22	Retail Sales Control Group	May	0.40%	—	1.00%
06/15/22	Import Price Index MoM	May	1.10%	—	0.00%
06/15/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	May	0.50%	—	0.40%
06/15/22	Import Price Index YoY	May	11.90%	—	12.00%
06/15/22	Export Price Index MoM	May	1.20%	—	0.60%
06/15/22	Export Price Index YoY	May	—	—	18.00%
06/15/22	Business Inventories	Apr	1.20%	—	2.00%
06/15/22	NAHB Housing Market Index	Jun	68	—	69
06/15/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	15-Jun	1.25%	—	0.75%
06/15/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	15-Jun	1.50%	—	1.00%
06/15/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	16-Jun	1.40%	—	0.90%
06/15/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Apr	—	—	$23.1b
06/15/22	Total Net TIC Flows	Apr	—	—	$149.2b
06/16/22	Building Permits	May	1783k	—	1819k
06/16/22	Building Permits MoM	May	-2.20%	—	-3.20%
06/16/22	Housing Starts	May	1703k	—	1724k
06/16/22	Housing Starts MoM	May	-1.20%	—	-0.20%
06/16/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	Jun	5	—	2.6
06/16/22	Initial Jobless Claims	11-Jun	215k	—	229k
06/16/22	Continuing Claims	4-Jun	1301k	—	1306k
06/17/22	Industrial Production MoM	May	0.40%	—	1.10%
06/17/22	Capacity Utilization	May	79.20%	—	79.00%
06/17/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	May	0.30%	—	0.80%
06/17/22	Leading Index	May	-0.40%	—	-0.30%

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