June 14, 2019 Headlines

US Treasury yields are higher this morning and the S&P 500 is set to open -.20% following the release of stronger than expected retail sales and industrial production data. May’s headline retails sales print was .5% vs estimates at .6% and the prior two months were revised higher. When looking at the sales in the control group, which some analysts view as a cleaner gauge of consumer demand, increased by .5% MoM slightly beating expectations. The broad based improvements in this morning’s releases improve the Federal Reserve’s case that the economy is healthy enough to avoid an interest-rate cut. Next weeks main event will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the market is pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut based on OIS.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/14/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%0.50%-0.20%0.30%
6/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.50%0.10%0.50%
6/14/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.50%-0.20%0.30%
6/14/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%0.00%0.40%
6/14/2019Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.40%-0.50%-0.40%
6/14/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.20%-0.50%—
6/14/2019Capacity Utilization78.00%78.10%77.90%—
6/14/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98—100—
6/14/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions109—110—
6/14/2019U. of Mich. Expectations92—93.5—
6/14/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.90%—
6/14/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.60%—
6/14/2019Business Inventories0.50%—0.00%—

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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