US Treasury yields are higher this morning and the S&P 500 is set to open -.20% following the release of stronger than expected retail sales and industrial production data. May’s headline retails sales print was .5% vs estimates at .6% and the prior two months were revised higher. When looking at the sales in the control group, which some analysts view as a cleaner gauge of consumer demand, increased by .5% MoM slightly beating expectations. The broad based improvements in this morning’s releases improve the Federal Reserve’s case that the economy is healthy enough to avoid an interest-rate cut. Next weeks main event will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the market is pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut based on OIS.
Associate, Investment Management Group
|6/14/2019||Retail Sales Advance MoM||0.60%||0.50%||-0.20%||0.30%|
|6/14/2019||Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM||0.40%||0.50%||0.10%||0.50%|
|6/14/2019||Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas||0.40%||0.50%||-0.20%||0.30%|
|6/14/2019||Retail Sales Control Group||0.40%||0.50%||0.00%||0.40%|
|6/14/2019||Industrial Production MoM||0.20%||0.40%||-0.50%||-0.40%|
|6/14/2019||Manufacturing (SIC) Production||0.20%||0.20%||-0.50%||—|
|6/14/2019||U. of Mich. Sentiment||98||—||100||—|
|6/14/2019||U. of Mich. Current Conditions||109||—||110||—|
|6/14/2019||U. of Mich. Expectations||92||—||93.5||—|
|6/14/2019||U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation||—||—||2.90%||—|
|6/14/2019||U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation||—||—||2.60%||—|
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