June 14, 2021 Headlines

U.S. markets are little changed to start the week with most eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. While no policy changes are expected from the Fed, market participants will be fixated on any discussion of QE tapering. Money market investors and depository institutions will also be watching for any change in the Fed’s administered rates (reverse repo and IOER). A combination of high liquidity and reduced Treasury bill issuance has contributed to record demand for the Fed’s reverse repo facility, which pays 0% on funds invested in the facility. However, the effective fed funds rate has continued to hold at 5 basis points or higher, which may lead the Fed to keep things unchanged at this week’s meeting. Beyond the Fed, the May retail sales report will be released tomorrow.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/15/2021 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.60% — 0.00% —
6/15/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% — -0.80% —
6/15/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.10% — -0.80% —
6/15/2021 Retail Sales Control Group -0.50% — -1.50% —
6/15/2021 Empire Manufacturing 22.5 — 24.3 —
6/15/2021 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.50% — 0.60% —
6/15/2021 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% — 0.70% —
6/15/2021 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.50% — 0.70% —
6/15/2021 PPI Final Demand YoY 6.20% — 6.20% —
6/15/2021 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.80% — 4.10% —
6/15/2021 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — — 4.60% —
6/15/2021 Capacity Utilization 75.10% — 74.90% 74.60%
6/15/2021 Industrial Production MoM 0.60% — 0.70% 0.50%
6/15/2021 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.80% — 0.40% —
6/15/2021 Business Inventories -0.10% — 0.30% —
6/15/2021 NAHB Housing Market Index 83 — 83 —
6/15/2021 Total Net TIC Flows — — $146.4b —
6/15/2021 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $262.2b —
6/16/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -3.10% —
6/16/2021 Building Permits MoM -0.20% — 0.30% -1.30%
6/16/2021 Building Permits 1730k — 1760k 1733k
6/16/2021 Housing Starts 1640k — 1569k —
6/16/2021 Housing Starts MoM 4.50% — -9.50% —
6/16/2021 Import Price Index MoM 0.70% — 0.70% —
6/16/2021 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% — 0.70% —
6/16/2021 Import Price Index YoY 10.80% — 10.60% —
6/16/2021 Export Price Index MoM 0.80% — 0.80% —
6/16/2021 Export Price Index YoY — — 14.40% —
6/16/2021 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% — 0.00% —
6/16/2021 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% — 0.25% —
6/16/2021 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% — 0.10% —
6/17/2021 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 31 — 31.5 —
6/17/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 360k — 376k —
6/17/2021 Continuing Claims 3425k — 3499k —
6/17/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 55.4 —
6/17/2021 Leading Index 1.30% — 1.60% —

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