June 14, 2022 Headlines

A modest correction emerged overnight in Treasuries, pushing front-end yields 7-8 basis points lower this morning. Normally, an 8 bps rally in the 2-year yield wouldn’t be considered “modest”, but when yields soar 54 bps in two days, the biggest two-day sell-off since 1987, “modest” feels like a more appropriate adjective. The sell-off coincided with the market repricing for consecutive 75 bps rate hikes at the June and July meetings and a 3.65% fed funds rate by year-end. The futures market now has fed funds reaching a terminal rate of 3.95 in Q2 next year. Prior to Friday’s CPI and consumer sentiment data, futures were pricing a 2.91% year-end funds rate and 3.38% terminal rate. Tomorrow we will get a better idea of what the Fed thinks about the market’s repricing with the rate decision, updated summary of economic projections, and Powell’s press conference.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
06/14/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	93	93.1	93.2	—
06/14/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.80%	0.80%	0.50%	0.40%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.60%	0.50%	0.40%	0.20%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.50%	0.50%	0.60%	0.40%
06/14/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.90%	10.80%	11.00%	10.90%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.60%	8.30%	8.80%	8.60%
06/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.90%	6.80%	6.90%	6.80%
06/15/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.50%	—
06/15/22	Empire Manufacturing	2.5	—	-11.6	—
06/15/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.10%	—	0.90%	—
06/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.70%	—	0.60%	—
06/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	1.00%	—
06/15/22	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	1.00%	—
06/15/22	Import Price Index MoM	1.10%	—	0.00%	—
06/15/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.60%	—	0.40%	—
06/15/22	Import Price Index YoY	11.90%	—	12.00%	—
06/15/22	Export Price Index MoM	1.30%	—	0.60%	—
06/15/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	18.00%	—
06/15/22	Business Inventories	1.20%	—	2.00%	—
06/15/22	NAHB Housing Market Index	67	—	69	—
06/15/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	1.25%	—	0.75%	—
06/15/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	1.50%	—	1.00%	—
06/15/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	1.40%	—	0.90%	—
06/15/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$23.1b	—
06/15/22	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$149.2b	—
06/16/22	Housing Starts	1698k	—	1724k	—
06/16/22	Building Permits	1778k	—	1819k	1823k
06/16/22	Housing Starts MoM	-1.50%	—	-0.20%	—
06/16/22	Building Permits MoM	-2.50%	—	-3.20%	-3.00%
06/16/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	5	—	2.6	—
06/16/22	Initial Jobless Claims	218k	—	229k	—
06/16/22	Continuing Claims	1307k	—	1306k	—
06/17/22	Industrial Production MoM	0.40%	—	1.10%	—
06/17/22	Capacity Utilization	79.20%	—	79.00%	—
06/17/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.30%	—	0.80%	—
06/17/22	Leading Index	-0.40%	—	-0.30%	—

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