June 14, 2022 Headlines

A modest correction emerged overnight in Treasuries, pushing front-end yields 7-8 basis points lower this morning. Normally, an 8 bps rally in the 2-year yield wouldn’t be considered “modest”, but when yields soar 54 bps in two days, the biggest two-day sell-off since 1987, “modest” feels like a more appropriate adjective. The sell-off coincided with the market repricing for consecutive 75 bps rate hikes at the June and July meetings and a 3.65% fed funds rate by year-end. The futures market now has fed funds reaching a terminal rate of 3.95 in Q2 next year. Prior to Friday’s CPI and consumer sentiment data, futures were pricing a 2.91% year-end funds rate and 3.38% terminal rate. Tomorrow we will get a better idea of what the Fed thinks about the market’s repricing with the rate decision, updated summary of economic projections, and Powell’s press conference.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

06/14/22NFIB Small Business Optimism9393.193.2
06/14/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.80%0.80%0.50%0.40%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.60%0.50%0.40%0.20%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.50%0.60%0.40%
06/14/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.90%10.80%11.00%10.90%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.60%8.30%8.80%8.60%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.90%6.80%6.90%6.80%
06/15/22MBA Mortgage Applications-6.50%
06/15/22Empire Manufacturing2.5-11.6
06/15/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%0.90%
06/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%0.60%
06/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%1.00%
06/15/22Retail Sales Control Group0.30%1.00%
06/15/22Import Price Index MoM1.10%0.00%
06/15/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.40%
06/15/22Import Price Index YoY11.90%12.00%
06/15/22Export Price Index MoM1.30%0.60%
06/15/22Export Price Index YoY18.00%
06/15/22Business Inventories1.20%2.00%
06/15/22NAHB Housing Market Index6769
06/15/22FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%0.75%
06/15/22FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.00%
06/15/22Interest on Reserve Balances Rate1.40%0.90%
06/15/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$23.1b
06/15/22Total Net TIC Flows$149.2b
06/16/22Housing Starts1698k1724k
06/16/22Building Permits1778k1819k1823k
06/16/22Housing Starts MoM-1.50%-0.20%
06/16/22Building Permits MoM-2.50%-3.20%-3.00%
06/16/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook52.6
06/16/22Initial Jobless Claims218k229k
06/16/22Continuing Claims1307k1306k
06/17/22Industrial Production MoM0.40%1.10%
06/17/22Capacity Utilization79.20%79.00%
06/17/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.80%
06/17/22Leading Index-0.40%-0.30%


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