June 14, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields rallied again in early trading after PPI came in lower than expected. May PPI declined by 0.3% versus the median forecast of -0.1%. Taken in concert with yesterday’s CPI release, it appears that inflation is starting to cool, giving the Fed more reason to skip a rate hike at today’s meeting. After today’s PPI release the market is pricing in an 11% chance of a hike versus 24% two days ago.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/14/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 7.20% -1.40%
06/14/23 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.10% -0.30% 0.20%
06/14/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
06/14/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.10%
06/14/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.50% 1.10% 2.30%
06/14/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.90% 2.80% 3.20% 3.10%
06/14/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.10% 2.80% 3.40% 3.30%
06/14/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.25% 5.25%
06/14/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.00% 5.00%
06/14/23 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.15% 5.15%
06/15/23 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.20% 0.40%
06/15/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 0.40%
06/15/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.60%
06/15/23 Retail Sales Control Group 0.20% 0.70%
06/15/23 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.40%
06/15/23 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% -0.10%
06/15/23 Import Price Index YoY -5.60% -4.80%
06/15/23 Export Price Index MoM -0.10% 0.20%
06/15/23 Export Price Index YoY -8.40% -5.90%
06/15/23 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 261k
06/15/23 Continuing Claims 1760k 1757k
06/15/23 Empire Manufacturing -15.1 -31.8
06/15/23 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -14 -10.4
06/15/23 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.50%
06/15/23 Capacity Utilization 79.70% 79.70%
06/15/23 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% 1.00%
06/15/23 Business Inventories 0.20% -0.10%
06/15/23 Net Long-term TIC Flows $133.3b
06/15/23 Total Net TIC Flows $56.7b
06/16/23 New York Fed Services Business Activity -16.8
06/16/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60 59.2
06/16/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 65 64.9
06/16/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 55.2 55.4
06/16/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.10% 4.20%
06/16/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.10%




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