June 15, 2021 Headlines

Markets are little changed following a weaker than expected May retail sales report. Headline sales fell 1.3% versus the prior month (-0.8% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 0.7% m/m (-0.5% expected). While the May data disappointed, there were notable upward revisions to the April data, which is likely driving the relatively muted response in Treasuries and equity futures so far. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
06/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.80%-1.30%0.00%0.90%
06/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.70%-0.80%0.00%
06/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%-0.80%-0.80%0.10%
06/15/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.50%-0.70%-1.50%-0.40%
06/15/21Empire Manufacturing22.717.424.3
06/15/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.80%0.60%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%
06/15/21PPI Final Demand YoY6.20%6.60%6.20%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.80%4.80%4.10%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.10%5.30%4.60%
06/15/21Capacity Utilization75.10%75.20%74.90%74.60%
06/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.70%0.80%0.70%0.10%
06/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.80%0.90%0.40%-0.10%
06/15/21Business Inventories-0.10%0.30%
06/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index8383
06/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$146.4b
06/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$262.2b
06/16/21MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%
06/16/21Building Permits MoM-0.20%0.30%-1.30%
06/16/21Building Permits1730k1760k1733k
06/16/21Housing Starts1630k1569k
06/16/21Housing Starts MoM3.90%-9.50%
06/16/21Import Price Index MoM0.80%0.70%
06/16/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%
06/16/21Import Price Index YoY10.90%10.60%
06/16/21Export Price Index MoM0.80%0.80%
06/16/21Export Price Index YoY15.20%14.40%
06/16/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
06/16/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
06/16/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
06/17/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook30.531.5
06/17/21Initial Jobless Claims360k376k
06/17/21Continuing Claims3425k3499k
06/17/21Langer Consumer Comfort55.4
06/17/21Leading Index1.30%1.60%

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