June 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries rallied overnight with better buying in Asian markets and some profit taking from short sellers ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. Front-end yields are 9-12 basis points lower this morning, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.9% (8:56am ET). May retail sales fell 0.3%, the first decline in five months and led by a 3.5% plunge in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.5% in May (0.7% expected), and the prior month was revised down by 20 bps to 0.4%. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, was flat in May (0.3% expected), and the April growth rate was cut in half to 0.5%. Markets should be relatively quiet ahead of the Fed announcement at 2pm ET. A 75 bps rate hike is fully priced in thanks to the severe sell off in bonds the last few days, and there will be close scrutiny of the Fed’s forward guidance, including both the updated SEP and Powell’s press conference.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/14/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 93 93.1 93.2 —
06/14/22 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.80% 0.80% 0.50% 0.40%
06/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.20%
06/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.50% 0.50% 0.60% 0.40%
06/14/22 PPI Final Demand YoY 10.90% 10.80% 11.00% 10.90%
06/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 8.60% 8.30% 8.80% 8.60%
06/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 6.90% 6.80% 6.90% 6.80%
06/15/22 MBA Mortgage Applications — 6.60% -6.50% —
06/15/22 Empire Manufacturing 2.3 -1.2 -11.6 —
06/15/22 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.10% -0.30% 0.90% 0.70%
06/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.70% 0.50% 0.60% 0.40%
06/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.10% 1.00% 0.80%
06/15/22 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.00% 1.00% 0.50%
06/15/22 Import Price Index MoM 1.10% 0.60% 0.00% 0.40%
06/15/22 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.60% -0.10% 0.40% 0.50%
06/15/22 Import Price Index YoY 11.90% 11.70% 12.00% 12.50%
06/15/22 Export Price Index MoM 1.30% 2.80% 0.60% 0.80%
06/15/22 Export Price Index YoY — 18.90% 18.00% 18.30%
06/15/22 Business Inventories 1.20% — 2.00% —
06/15/22 NAHB Housing Market Index 67 — 69 —
06/15/22 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.25% — 0.75% —
06/15/22 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.50% — 1.00% —
06/15/22 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 1.65% — 0.90% —
06/15/22 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $23.1b —
06/15/22 Total Net TIC Flows — — $149.2b —
06/16/22 Housing Starts 1693k — 1724k —
06/16/22 Building Permits 1778k — 1819k 1823k
06/16/22 Housing Starts MoM -1.80% — -0.20% —
06/16/22 Building Permits MoM -2.50% — -3.20% -3.00%
06/16/22 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 5 — 2.6 —
06/16/22 Initial Jobless Claims 218k — 229k —
06/16/22 Continuing Claims 1307k — 1306k —
06/17/22 Industrial Production MoM 0.40% — 1.10% —
06/17/22 Capacity Utilization 79.20% — 79.00% —
06/17/22 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% — 0.80% —
06/17/22 Leading Index -0.40% — -0.30% —

 

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