June 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries rallied overnight with better buying in Asian markets and some profit taking from short sellers ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. Front-end yields are 9-12 basis points lower this morning, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.9% (8:56am ET). May retail sales fell 0.3%, the first decline in five months and led by a 3.5% plunge in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.5% in May (0.7% expected), and the prior month was revised down by 20 bps to 0.4%. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, was flat in May (0.3% expected), and the April growth rate was cut in half to 0.5%. Markets should be relatively quiet ahead of the Fed announcement at 2pm ET. A 75 bps rate hike is fully priced in thanks to the severe sell off in bonds the last few days, and there will be close scrutiny of the Fed’s forward guidance, including both the updated SEP and Powell’s press conference.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

06/14/22NFIB Small Business Optimism9393.193.2
06/14/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.80%0.80%0.50%0.40%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.60%0.50%0.40%0.20%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.50%0.60%0.40%
06/14/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.90%10.80%11.00%10.90%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.60%8.30%8.80%8.60%
06/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.90%6.80%6.90%6.80%
06/15/22MBA Mortgage Applications6.60%-6.50%
06/15/22Empire Manufacturing2.3-1.2-11.6
06/15/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%-0.30%0.90%0.70%
06/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%0.50%0.60%0.40%
06/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.10%1.00%0.80%
06/15/22Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.00%1.00%0.50%
06/15/22Import Price Index MoM1.10%0.60%0.00%0.40%
06/15/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%-0.10%0.40%0.50%
06/15/22Import Price Index YoY11.90%11.70%12.00%12.50%
06/15/22Export Price Index MoM1.30%2.80%0.60%0.80%
06/15/22Export Price Index YoY18.90%18.00%18.30%
06/15/22Business Inventories1.20%2.00%
06/15/22NAHB Housing Market Index6769
06/15/22FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%0.75%
06/15/22FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.00%
06/15/22Interest on Reserve Balances Rate1.65%0.90%
06/15/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$23.1b
06/15/22Total Net TIC Flows$149.2b
06/16/22Housing Starts1693k1724k
06/16/22Building Permits1778k1819k1823k
06/16/22Housing Starts MoM-1.80%-0.20%
06/16/22Building Permits MoM-2.50%-3.20%-3.00%
06/16/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook52.6
06/16/22Initial Jobless Claims218k229k
06/16/22Continuing Claims1307k1306k
06/17/22Industrial Production MoM0.40%1.10%
06/17/22Capacity Utilization79.20%79.00%
06/17/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.80%
06/17/22Leading Index-0.40%-0.30%


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