Treasuries were well-bid overnight and are currently a few basis points lower across the curve (2s10s being 1bp lower at 35bps) as the US announced $50bn of tariffs across a variety of Chinese goods. China quickly reacted, stating that they will impose tariffs with “equal scale, equal intensity” and that the consensus reached on reducing the trade gap will be nullified. On top of that, reports suggest that the US is already preparing a second list of target goods worth as much as $100bn should China retaliate.

The Nikkei finished the trading session 0.5% higher as the BOJ said it plans on maintaining its aggressive asset-purchase program while also pledging to continue with stimulus until Japan reaches its 2% inflation target. European equities finished the trading day broadly lower and S&P 500 futures are currently down 15pts on the China tariff news.

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/12/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105107.8104.8
06/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
06/12/2018CPI YoY2.80%2.80%2.50%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.20%2.10%
06/12/2018CPI Index NSA251.611251.588250.546
06/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.884256.889256.45
06/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%0.40%
06/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%0.20%
06/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$144.0b-$146.8b-$88.4b
06/13/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.50%4.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.50%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%3.10%2.60%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.40%2.30%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.60%2.50%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%2.00%1.75%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%1.75%1.50%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.80%0.30%0.40%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.90%0.30%0.40%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.80%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%0.40%0.60%
06/14/2018Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.60%0.30%0.60%
06/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
06/14/2018Import Price Index YoY3.90%4.30%3.30%3.60%
06/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.60%0.60%
06/14/2018Export Price Index YoY4.90%3.80%3.70%
06/14/2018Initial Jobless Claims223k218k222k
06/14/2018Continuing Claims1732k1697k1741k1746k
06/14/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort55.854.8
06/14/2018Business Inventories0.30%0.30%0.00%-0.10%
06/15/2018Empire Manufacturing18.82520.1
06/15/2018Industrial Production MoM0.20%-0.10%0.70%0.90%
06/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%-0.70%0.50%0.60%
06/15/2018Capacity Utilization78.10%77.90%78.00%78.10%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.598
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.8
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Expectations89.1
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
06/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows-$38.5b
06/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$61.8b
06/18/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7070
06/19/2018Housing Starts1314k1287k
06/19/2018Housing Starts MoM2.10%-3.70%
06/19/2018Building Permits1350k1352k1364k
06/19/2018Building Permits MoM-1.00%-1.80%-0.90%
06/20/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.50%
06/20/2018Current Account Balance-$129.0b-$128.2b
06/20/2018Existing Home Sales5.55m5.46m
06/20/2018Existing Home Sales MoM1.70%-2.50%
06/21/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k218k
06/21/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook28.234.4
06/21/2018Continuing Claims1697k
06/21/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%
06/21/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.5
06/21/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort55.8
06/21/2018Leading Index0.40%0.40%
06/22/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.456.4
06/22/2018Markit US Services PMI56.756.8
06/22/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.6