Treasury yields are higher across the curve and US equity futures are up 2.5% as the markets digest several headlines this morning. On the fiscal front, the Trump administration is reportedly working on a $1 trillion infrastructure spending proposal that would focus on roads, bridges, and 5G wireless infrastructure. In geopolitical news, North Koreas blew up an inter-Korean liaison office on its side of the border, and there was a violent standoff between Chinese and Indian soldiers at the two countries’ border, the first such incident in decades.
On a positive note, retail sales rose much more than expected in May, with the headline figure up 17.7% m/m (8.4% expected). The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 11% in May (5.2% expected). With another strong sales month expected for June, economists will likely begin to revise Q2 GDP forecasts higher from their previous worst-case expectations. Also boosting risk markets this morning was a report that a low-cost steroid (anti-inflammatory) is the first treatment shown to improve survival rates for COVID-19 patients, according to a Bloomberg article sourcing University of Oxford researchers. Fatalities in patients needing respirators were lower over a 4-week period for patients that took the drug based on the study’s findings.
Chief Investment Officer
|6/16/2020||Retail Sales Advance MoM||8.40%||17.70%||-16.40%||-14.70%|
|6/16/2020||Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM||5.50%||12.40%||-17.20%||-15.20%|
|6/16/2020||Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas||5.10%||12.40%||-16.20%||-14.40%|
|6/16/2020||Retail Sales Control Group||5.20%||11.00%||-15.30%||-12.40%|
|6/16/2020||Industrial Production MoM||3.00%||—||-11.20%||—|
|6/16/2020||Manufacturing (SIC) Production||5.00%||—||-13.70%||—|
|6/16/2020||NAHB Housing Market Index||45||—||37||—|
|6/17/2020||MBA Mortgage Applications||—||—||9.30%||—|
|6/17/2020||Building Permits MoM||17.30%||—||-20.80%||-21.40%|
|6/17/2020||Housing Starts MoM||23.50%||—||-30.20%||—|
|6/18/2020||Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook||-22.9||—||-43.1||—|
|6/18/2020||Initial Jobless Claims||1290k||—||1542k||—|
|6/18/2020||Bloomberg Economic Expectations||—||—||29||—|
|6/18/2020||Bloomberg Consumer Comfort||—||—||38.7||—|
|6/19/2020||Current Account Balance||-$102.9b||—||-$109.8b||—|
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