June 16, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher across the curve and US equity futures are up 2.5% as the markets digest several headlines this morning. On the fiscal front, the Trump administration is reportedly working on a $1 trillion infrastructure spending proposal that would focus on roads, bridges, and 5G wireless infrastructure. In geopolitical news, North Koreas blew up an inter-Korean liaison office on its side of the border, and there was a violent standoff between Chinese and Indian soldiers at the two countries’ border, the first such incident in decades.

On a positive note, retail sales rose much more than expected in May, with the headline figure up 17.7% m/m (8.4% expected). The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 11% in May (5.2% expected). With another strong sales month expected for June, economists will likely begin to revise Q2 GDP forecasts higher from their previous worst-case expectations. Also boosting risk markets this morning was a report that a low-cost steroid (anti-inflammatory) is the first treatment shown to improve survival rates for COVID-19 patients, according to a Bloomberg article sourcing University of Oxford researchers. Fatalities in patients needing respirators were lower over a 4-week period for patients that took the drug based on the study’s findings.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/16/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM8.40%17.70%-16.40%-14.70%
6/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.50%12.40%-17.20%-15.20%
6/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas5.10%12.40%-16.20%-14.40%
6/16/2020Retail Sales Control Group5.20%11.00%-15.30%-12.40%
6/16/2020Industrial Production MoM3.00%-11.20%
6/16/2020Capacity Utilization66.90%64.90%
6/16/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production5.00%-13.70%
6/16/2020Business Inventories-1.00%-0.20%
6/16/2020NAHB Housing Market Index4537
6/17/2020MBA Mortgage Applications9.30%
6/17/2020Building Permits1250k1074k1066k
6/17/2020Building Permits MoM17.30%-20.80%-21.40%
6/17/2020Housing Starts1100k891k
6/17/2020Housing Starts MoM23.50%-30.20%
6/18/2020Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-22.9-43.1
6/18/2020Initial Jobless Claims1290k1542k
6/18/2020Continuing Claims19850k20929k
6/18/2020Bloomberg Economic Expectations29
6/18/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort38.7
6/18/2020Leading Index2.40%-4.40%
6/19/2020Current Account Balance-$102.9b-$109.8b


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