June 18, 2019 Headlines

Global bond markets are rallying following very dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. European 10-year bond yields are hitting new record lows today, with the German 10-year down to -0.33% and the French 10-year now at 0% for the first time ever. Treasuries have rallied in sympathy, pushing the 5-year yield below 1.8% and the 10-year yield down to 2.03%. In response to persistent below-target inflation, Draghi said the ECB stands prepared to initiate “further cuts in policy interest rates,” and more importantly from a market perspective, he suggested the asset purchase program “still has considerable headroom.” Risk markets are responding favorably to the latter, with European equities up more than 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.60%. All eyes are now on the Fed, which will release its decision and guidance tomorrow afternoon.

Housing starts and building permits were both better than expected in May, including an upward revision to April starts. Multifamily starts provided the biggest boost to the May figure (+10.9% m/m), but looking ahead, single-family permits were up 3.7% from the prior month, the first positive monthly change since last November.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/18/2019Housing Starts1239k1269k1235k1281k
6/18/2019Housing Starts MoM0.30%-0.90%5.70%6.80%
6/18/2019Building Permits1292k1294k1296k1290k
6/18/2019Building Permits MoM0.10%0.30%0.60%0.20%
6/19/2019MBA Mortgage Applications——26.80%—
6/19/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%—2.50%—
6/19/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%—2.25%—
6/19/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.35%—2.35%—
6/20/2019Current Account Balance-$124.3b—-$134.4b—
6/20/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k—222k—
6/20/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10.7—16.6—
6/20/2019Continuing Claims1680k—1695k—
6/20/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——61.6—
6/20/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations——52.5—
6/20/2019Leading Index0.10%—0.20%—
6/21/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.5—50.5—
6/21/2019Markit US Services PMI51—50.9—
6/21/2019Markit US Composite PMI——50.9—
6/21/2019Existing Home Sales5.26m—5.19m—
6/21/2019Existing Home Sales MoM1.40%—-0.40%—

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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