June 18, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries are taking a bit of breather this morning following yesterday’s rally. The curve flattened after the Fed indicated that a tightening in monetary policy could arrive sooner than the market was expecting. As a result, inflation fears have abated leading some investors to unwind some of their inflation trades. Front-end yields rose after forecasts showed two hikes by end of 2023, further compressing the spread between the long-end and front end of the curve. The spread between 2s and 10s has hit its lowest level since early March and the spread between 5s and 30s has fallen to its tightest level since November of last year.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
06/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.80%-1.30%0.00%0.90%
06/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.70%-0.80%0.00%
06/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%-0.80%-0.80%0.10%
06/15/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.50%-0.70%-1.50%-0.40%
06/15/21Empire Manufacturing22.717.424.3
06/15/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%0.80%0.60%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%
06/15/21PPI Final Demand YoY6.20%6.60%6.20%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.80%4.80%4.10%
06/15/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.10%5.30%4.60%
06/15/21Capacity Utilization75.10%75.20%74.90%74.60%
06/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.70%0.80%0.70%0.10%
06/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.80%0.90%0.40%-0.10%
06/15/21Business Inventories-0.10%-0.20%0.30%0.20%
06/15/21NAHB Housing Market Index838183
06/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$101.2b$146.4b$146.7b
06/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$100.7b$262.2b$262.4b
06/16/21MBA Mortgage Applications4.20%-3.10%
06/16/21Housing Starts1630k1572k1569k1517k
06/16/21Housing Starts MoM3.90%3.60%-9.50%-12.10%
06/16/21Building Permits1730k1681k1760k1733k
06/16/21Building Permits MoM-0.20%-3.00%0.30%-1.30%
06/16/21Import Price Index MoM0.80%1.10%0.70%0.80%
06/16/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.90%0.70%
06/16/21Import Price Index YoY10.90%11.30%10.60%10.80%
06/16/21Export Price Index MoM0.80%2.20%0.80%1.10%
06/16/21Export Price Index YoY15.20%17.40%14.40%14.90%
06/16/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
06/16/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
06/16/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.15%0.10%
06/17/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook3130.731.5
06/17/21Initial Jobless Claims360k412k376k375k
06/17/21Continuing Claims3425k3518k3499k3517k
06/17/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.255.4
06/17/21Leading Index1.30%1.30%1.60%1.30%

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