June 19, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries are giving up some of yesterday’s gains ahead of today’s Fed meeting, and S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of the open. Yesterday’s trading activity was driven largely by ECB President Mario Draghi’s ultra-dovish press conference, where he suggested more monetary accommodation was all but certain in the near future. However, a Reuters article posted late yesterday afternoon suggested that other ECB leaders were caught off guard by Draghi’s stimulus hints and that there was no consensus within the ECB Governing Council on the path ahead.

As discussed on Monday, the market is not expecting a rate cut from the Fed today, but guidance for policy easing in the very near future is expected. Market participants will be paying close attention to Jerome Powell’s press conference as he attempts to present a very tricky message, and the FOMC will also be releasing an updated Summary of Economic Projections.

On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 3.4% for the week ended June 14, including a 3.5% in refinance applications. There has been more focus on the potential for increased mortgage refi activity recently amid the strong rally in Treasuries, and the refi index rose 46.5% last week to the highest level since November 2016. For added perspective, current refi application activity, as measured by the MBA, is just 33% of what was experienced back in 2012 during the last major refi wave.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

6/19/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.40%26.80%
6/19/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.50%
6/19/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.25%
6/19/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.35%2.35%
6/20/2019Current Account Balance-$124.3b-$134.4b
6/20/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k222k
6/20/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10.716.6
6/20/2019Continuing Claims1680k1695k
6/20/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.6
6/20/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations52.5
6/20/2019Leading Index0.10%0.20%
6/21/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.550.5
6/21/2019Markit US Services PMI5150.9
6/21/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.9
6/21/2019Existing Home Sales5.27m5.19m
6/21/2019Existing Home Sales MoM1.40%-0.40%























Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.