June 2, 2022 Headlines

Front-end yields are 1 to 2 bps higher this morning. Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 200k vs a median forecast of 210k. Continuing claims also came in lower than the forecast at 1.309mm actual vs 1.340mm expected. Both readings were declines vs the prior week and highlight labor market strength. Last week’s continuing claims number is the lowest print since 1969. We’ll get another picture of the labor market tomorrow from non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. The latter is expected to hit 3.5% which would be the lowest level since 1969.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
05/31/22 FHFA House Price Index MoM 2.00% 1.50% 2.10% 1.90%
05/31/22 House Price Purchase Index QoQ — 4.60% 3.30% 3.60%
05/31/22 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.90% 2.42% 2.39% —
05/31/22 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 20.00% 21.17% 20.20% 20.26%
05/31/22 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 20.55% 19.80% 20.01%
05/31/22 MNI Chicago PMI 55 60.3 56.4 —
05/31/22 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 103.6 106.4 107.3 108.6
05/31/22 Conf. Board Present Situation — 149.6 152.6 152.9
05/31/22 Conf. Board Expectations — 77.5 77.2 79
05/31/22 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 1.5 -7.3 1.1 —
06/01/22 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.30% -1.20% —
06/01/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57 57.5 —
06/01/22 Construction Spending MoM 0.50% 0.20% 0.10% 0.30%
06/01/22 ISM Manufacturing 54.5 56.1 55.4 —
06/01/22 ISM Prices Paid 81 82.2 84.6 —
06/01/22 ISM New Orders 52.9 55.1 53.5 —
06/01/22 ISM Employment 52 49.6 50.9 —
06/01/22 JOLTS Job Openings 11350k 11400k 11549k 11855k
06/01/22 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
06/01/22 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.70m 12.68m 14.29m —
06/02/22 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — -15.80% 6.00% —
06/02/22 ADP Employment Change 300k 128k 247k 202k
06/02/22 Nonfarm Productivity -7.50% -7.30% -7.50% —
06/02/22 Unit Labor Costs 11.60% 12.60% 11.60% —
06/02/22 Initial Jobless Claims 210k 200k 210k 211k
06/02/22 Continuing Claims 1340k 1309k 1346k 1343k
06/02/22 Factory Orders 0.70% — 2.20% 1.80%
06/02/22 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 2.50% 2.10%
06/02/22 Durable Goods Orders 0.40% — 0.40% —
06/02/22 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% — 0.30% —
06/02/22 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.40% — 0.30% —
06/02/22 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.80% —
06/03/22 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — — —
06/03/22 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 325k — 428k —
06/03/22 Change in Private Payrolls 301k — 406k —
06/03/22 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 39k — 55k —
06/03/22 Unemployment Rate 3.50% — 3.60% —
06/03/22 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% — 0.30% —
06/03/22 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.20% — 5.50% —
06/03/22 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6 — 34.6 —
06/03/22 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.30% — 62.20% —
06/03/22 Underemployment Rate — — 7.00% —
06/03/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 53.5 — 53.5 —
06/03/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53.8 — 53.8 —
06/03/22 ISM Services Index 56.5 — 57.1 —

 

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