June 2, 2022 Headlines

Front-end yields are 1 to 2 bps higher this morning. Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 200k vs a median forecast of 210k. Continuing claims also came in lower than the forecast at 1.309mm actual vs 1.340mm expected. Both readings were declines vs the prior week and highlight labor market strength. Last week’s continuing claims number is the lowest print since 1969. We’ll get another picture of the labor market tomorrow from non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. The latter is expected to hit 3.5% which would be the lowest level since 1969.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/31/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	2.00%	1.50%	2.10%	1.90%
05/31/22	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	4.60%	3.30%	3.60%
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.90%	2.42%	2.39%	—
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.00%	21.17%	20.20%	20.26%
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	20.55%	19.80%	20.01%
05/31/22	MNI Chicago PMI	55	60.3	56.4	—
05/31/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	103.6	106.4	107.3	108.6
05/31/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	149.6	152.6	152.9
05/31/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	77.5	77.2	79
05/31/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	1.5	-7.3	1.1	—
06/01/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.30%	-1.20%	—
06/01/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	57	57.5	—
06/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.50%	0.20%	0.10%	0.30%
06/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	54.5	56.1	55.4	—
06/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	81	82.2	84.6	—
06/01/22	ISM New Orders	52.9	55.1	53.5	—
06/01/22	ISM Employment	52	49.6	50.9	—
06/01/22	JOLTS Job Openings	11350k	11400k	11549k	11855k
06/01/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
06/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.70m	12.68m	14.29m	—
06/02/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-15.80%	6.00%	—
06/02/22	ADP Employment Change	300k	128k	247k	202k
06/02/22	Nonfarm Productivity	-7.50%	-7.30%	-7.50%	—
06/02/22	Unit Labor Costs	11.60%	12.60%	11.60%	—
06/02/22	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	200k	210k	211k
06/02/22	Continuing Claims	1340k	1309k	1346k	1343k
06/02/22	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	2.20%	1.80%
06/02/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	2.50%	2.10%
06/02/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
06/02/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
06/02/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
06/02/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.80%	—
06/03/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
06/03/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	325k	—	428k	—
06/03/22	Change in Private Payrolls	301k	—	406k	—
06/03/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	39k	—	55k	—
06/03/22	Unemployment Rate	3.50%	—	3.60%	—
06/03/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
06/03/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.20%	—	5.50%	—
06/03/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.6	—
06/03/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.30%	—	62.20%	—
06/03/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
06/03/22	S&P Global US Services PMI	53.5	—	53.5	—
06/03/22	S&P Global US Composite PMI	53.8	—	53.8	—
06/03/22	ISM Services Index	56.5	—	57.1	—

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