The curve is lower this morning roughly 2 to 3 basis points after two known anti-EU Italian lawmakers were appointed as heads the Senate Finance Committee and Lower House Budget Committee. Given the somewhat precarious situation facing global trade, it doesn’t take much to spook the market and the news out of Italy spurred investors to shed risk assets pushing equites and oil lower overnight. In the US, the jobless claims number came in lower than expected at 218,000 versus 220,000, and the reading was six-week low. The market will likely pay a little more attention to this number going forward due to the age of the current expansion in addition to the fears surrounding trade; as any increase could be a signal that the music is about to stop.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/18/2018NAHB Housing Market Index706870
06/19/2018Housing Starts1311k1350k1287k1286k
06/19/2018Housing Starts MoM1.90%5.00%-3.70%-3.10%
06/19/2018Building Permits1350k1301k1352k1364k
06/19/2018Building Permits MoM-1.00%-4.60%-1.80%-0.90%
06/20/2018MBA Mortgage Applications5.10%-1.50%
06/20/2018Current Account Balance-$129.0b-$124.1b-$128.2b-$116.1b
06/20/2018Existing Home Sales5.52m5.43m5.46m5.45m
06/20/2018Existing Home Sales MoM1.10%-0.40%-2.50%-2.70%
06/21/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k218k218k221k
06/21/2018Continuing Claims1710k1723k1697k1701k
06/21/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2919.934.4
06/21/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.10%0.10%0.20%
06/21/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.5
06/21/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort55.8
06/21/2018Leading Index0.40%0.40%
06/22/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.156.4
06/22/2018Markit US Services PMI56.556.8
06/22/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.6
06/25/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.34
06/25/2018New Home Sales670k662k
06/25/2018New Home Sales MoM1.20%-1.50%
06/25/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2426.8
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.53%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.79%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index208.62
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index198.94
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.53%
06/26/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1516
06/26/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence127.2128
06/26/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.7
06/26/2018Conf. Board Expectations105.6
06/27/2018MBA Mortgage Applications5.10%
06/27/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%
06/27/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.70%-1.60%
06/27/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$67.3b-$68.2b-$67.3b
06/27/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.90%
06/27/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.50%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%-1.30%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.40%
06/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.20%
06/28/2018Initial Jobless Claims218k
06/28/2018Continuing Claims1723k
06/28/2018Personal Consumption1.00%
06/28/2018GDP Price Index1.90%1.90%
06/28/2018Core PCE QoQ2.30%
06/28/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
06/28/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity29