June 23, 2020 Headlines

It was a somewhat volatile overnight session due to conflicting comments on the US/China trade deal from Peter Navarro, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy for the Trump administration. During an interview with Fox News last night, Navarro was asked whether the trade deal with China was over given everything that has happened recently, to which Navarro responded affirmatively “it’s over.”  Equity futures fell sharply following the comments, and Treasuries rallied. Navarro later walked back the comments, telling the Wall Street Journal that it was taken “wildly out of context,” and President Trump later tweeted that the trade deal is “fully intact.” Markets recovered quickly, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 1.7% ahead of the open.  Risk markets are also responding well to better than expected PMI data from Europe, with the aggregate Eurozone composite index rising to 47.5 in June (43.0 expected) following a 31.9 reading in May.  U.S. PMI data will be released later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/22/2020Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-102.61-16.74-17.89
6/22/2020Existing Home Sales4.09m3.91m4.33m
6/22/2020Existing Home Sales MoM-5.60%-9.70%-17.80%
6/23/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI5049.639.8
6/23/2020Markit US Services PMI4846.737.5
6/23/2020Markit US Composite PMI46.837
6/23/2020New Home Sales640k676k623k580k
6/23/2020New Home Sales MoM2.70%16.60%0.60%-5.20%
6/23/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-20-27
6/24/2020MBA Mortgage Applications8.00%
6/24/2020FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.10%
6/25/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$68.1b-$69.7b
6/25/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%
6/25/2020Retail Inventories MoM-2.80%-3.60%
6/25/2020Durable Goods Orders10.30%-17.70%
6/25/2020Durables Ex Transportation2.20%-7.70%
6/25/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%-6.10%
6/25/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.00%-5.70%
6/25/2020GDP Annualized QoQ-5.00%-5.00%
6/25/2020Personal Consumption-6.80%-6.80%
6/25/2020GDP Price Index1.40%1.40%
6/25/2020Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.60%
6/25/2020Initial Jobless Claims1335k1508k
6/25/2020Continuing Claims20000k20544k
6/25/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort40.2
6/25/2020Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-7-19
6/26/2020Personal Income-6.00%10.50%
6/26/2020Personal Spending9.00%-13.60%
6/26/2020Real Personal Spending8.80%-13.20%
6/26/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.00%-0.50%
6/26/2020PCE Deflator YoY0.50%0.50%
6/26/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.00%-0.40%
6/26/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY0.90%1.00%
6/26/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7978.9
6/26/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.8
6/26/2020U. of Mich. Expectations73.1
6/26/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
6/26/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%

 

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