Treasury yields are slightly lower and the curve flatter to start the week. Market participants continue to assess geopolitical risks with Iran and trade risks with China, but for now, risk markets appear to be shaking off some of these concerns. S&P 500 futures are up 6 points, and credit spreads are tighter on the day. Oil prices are indeed higher on the day, but not sharply enough to convey serious concerns regarding U.S. tensions with Iran (broad markets typically look to the reaction of oil markets when assessing situations in the Middle East).
The primary areas of focus this week from a market perspective will be the G-20 summit and comments from Fed leaders. The G-20 will begin Friday in Japan, and investors will, of course, be looking for any signs of thawing with regards to current U.S./China tensions. Several Fed leaders will be speaking tomorrow, headlined by Jerome Powell at 1pm EDT.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
6/24/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.2 | -0.05 | -0.45 | -0.48 |
6/24/2019 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -2 | — | -5.3 | — |
6/25/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
6/25/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | — | 0.09% | — |
6/25/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.45% | — | 2.68% | — |
6/25/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | 215.6 | — | 214.09 | — |
6/25/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 3.50% | — | 3.72% | — |
6/25/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 206.23 | — |
6/25/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 2 | — | 5 | — |
6/25/2019 | Revisions: Retail Sales | ||||
6/25/2019 | New Home Sales | 685k | — | 673k | — |
6/25/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.80% | — | -6.90% | — |
6/25/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 131 | — | 134.1 | — |
6/25/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 175.2 | — |
6/25/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 106.6 | — |
6/26/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.40% | — |
6/26/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.20% | — | -2.10% | — |
6/26/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
6/26/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | -1.00% | — |
6/26/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
6/26/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$71.5b | — | -$72.1b | — |
6/26/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | 0.50% |
6/26/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
6/27/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.20% | — | 3.10% | — |
6/27/2019 | Personal Consumption | 1.30% | — | 1.30% | — |
6/27/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 218k | — | 216k | — |
6/27/2019 | GDP Price Index | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
6/27/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1665k | — | 1662k | — |
6/27/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
6/27/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 61.8 | — |
6/27/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | -1.50% | — |
6/27/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
6/27/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 0 | — | 4 | — |
6/28/2019 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
6/28/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
6/28/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
6/28/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
6/28/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
6/28/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
6/28/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.60% | — |
6/28/2019 | MNI Chicago PMI | 53.5 | — | 54.2 | — |
6/28/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98 | — | 97.9 | — |
6/28/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 112.5 | — |
6/28/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 88.6 | — |
6/28/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
6/28/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.20% | — |
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